MLB
5 Active Players Most Likely to Break the Home Run Record
Baseball is seeing Home Runs fly at rates never seen before, so which active player has the best chance to break the HR record?
USA TODAY Sports
The Home Run is the ultimate result a hitter can achieve. It is also one of the most exciting things about the game of baseball. Some consider the steroid-era (90s-00s) as the most entertaining era in Major League Baseball history due to the absurd numbers players were putting up. After being on the outside looking in during the historic home run chase in 1998, Barry Bonds broke Mark McGwire’s fresh record (70) three years later by hitting 73 homers and becoming the all-time single season record holder. Since then, no hitter has even reached Babe Ruth’s original 60-HR record.
What made the steroid era so captivating for some fans, was that records were being broken and fans want to witness history. Baseball right now is in the midst of a new Home Run era. With rumors of baseballs being juiced, baseballs are flying out of the park at rates never seen before and the art of launch angles have become mastered by many. The game’s best power hitters are in prime position to make a serious run at the most memorable, coveted, and controversial record in the history of this 151 year-old sport. These are the premier candidates that could one day claim the crown.
KEY FACT: Broke Aaron Judge‘s single-season rookie Home Run record in 2019 (53)
Pete Alonso proved the Mets front office right in calling him up for Opening Day instead of waiting until the third week of April and manipulating his service time. Alonso, 25, made an instant impact on New York’s lineup, posting a 1.024 OPS after the first month of the season. What followed was nothing short of historic.
Alonso broke the all-time rookie Home Run record and established himself as one of the most dangerous power bats in Major League Baseball, slugging .583. He won the NL Rookie of the Year, led the majors in home runs, won the HR Derby, and finished seventh in NL MVP voting, all in his first year in the bigs. Alonso also finished in the 97th percentile in Barrel % with 15.8. If he can hit 53 bombs and win the HR derby as a rookie, who knows what his ceiling could be and if a 73-HR season is part of his future.
KEY FACT: Career-high 45 HR and a Major League-best 10.4 AB/HR in 2019
Mike Trout is regarded as one of the greatest and most decorated players of all-time, and still has more than half of his career remaining. Most people would pick Trout as the best bet to potentially break the single-season Home Run record. The 2019 AL MVP has missed significant time due to injuries the past few seasons (129 GP/Yr), leaving fans thinking what a full, healthy season of Trout could be like since he seems to improve every year. Trout is coming off his best power-hitting season yet with career-highs in Home Runs and SLG (.645), despite only playing in 134 games.
Trout is also statistically better than many Hall of Famers already (72.8 bWAR ranks 86th all-time), and he is just in the eighth full year of his career. He also became the fifth hitter ever to hit the 285 career HR mark in his age-27 season. Trout’s 10.44 AB/HR led the Major Leagues last season but compared to Bonds’ 6.52 AB/HR in 2001, there’s still plenty of work to be done. As long as Trout stays healthy, he has a great chance of making a run at the record one of these years.
KEY FACT: Won NL MVP with 47 Home Runs after hitting just 25 in 2018
Cody Bellinger‘s improvement from his 2018 ROY campaign is nothing short of amazing. Not only did he almost hit 2x as many home runs, but he also increased his BB% from 10.9% to 14.4%, and decreased his K% from 23.9% to 16.4%, showing an impressive approach at the plate. One of the reasons Bellinger has a good chance at challenging the home run record is the fact that he is still just 24 years old, meaning that he likely has several more years of peak offensive performance. Bellinger became the second youngest player to hit at least 47 HR in a single-season since a 23-year-old Prince Fielder hit 50 in 2007.
The reason for Bellinger’s power surge in 2019 was his explosive swing that is carefully crafted with an optimal launch angle. Bellinger’s launch angle (17.6) in 2019 was right on the sweet spot (10-30 degree launch angles are considered the best for HR). Bellinger reworked his swing in the offseason prior to his MVP year, and it proved to be the key to his success.
According to Statcast, Bellinger’s Barrel % increased from 8.6% in 2018 to 13.0%, in addition to his Hard Hit % growing from 38.6% to 45.5% as well. That revolutionized swing produced one of the best Home Run hitting seasons in the past decade. Bellinger has as bright of a future as any MLB player and his electric swing makes him a potential threat for Bonds’ 73-HR record once he reaches the pinnacle of his powers.
KEY FACT: Stanton (59 HR) in 2017 is the closest any active player has gotten to 73 HR
Giancarlo Stanton spent the majority of 2019 on the IL, suffering multiple setbacks throughout the season. The 30-year-old slugger has been the face of power hitting during the 2010s, but injuries have held him back during his 4x All-Star career as he’s played more than 150 games only twice so far in his 10-year career.
Since his debut in 2010, Stanton has the third most home runs in baseball with 308, behind Edwin Encarnación and Nelson Cruz. Stanton’s biggest enemy has been his health and his inability to play a 162-game season. In his MVP season in 2017, Stanton challenged Bonds’ record by hitting the most Home Runs in a season since Bonds himself in 2001. Stanton’s home run barrage in 2017 is a reminder of how crazy Bonds’ record actually is.
Now Stanton is with the New York Yankees, which plays better for his chances at the home run record considering the AL East features some of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league with Fenway Park’s “Green Monster”, the boom-box that is Candem Yards, and the short porch in Yankee Stadium. He hit 38 HR in 2018, a year where he was still adapting to life as a Bronx Bomber and supposedly played hurt. When Stanton is healthy, few in the league can match his raw power, and he’s proven he has what it takes to make a run at the record if given a clean bill of health.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mRNREZbIBM
KEY FACT: Hit 4 HR in a five-game span & was the runner-up in 2019 HR derby as a rookie
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was called up last season after tearing up Minor League baseball. During his dominant 2018 campaign, Guerrero Jr. hit .381/.437/1.073 across four different levels (Rk, A+, AA, and AAA). In his rookie year with Toronto, Vlad Jr. didn’t quite set the world on fire with his power. He hit “just” 15 HR and slugged .433 in 123 games. However, Vladdy made his mark in the HR Derby, where he broke the record for most HRs in a single competition (91).
One of Guerrero Jr.’s positives was his low K% (17.7) which is below league average, and pretty impressive for a 20-year-old with the insane amount of hype that he had. Vladdy’s power potential is there, his strength is apparent, but he must tweak his mechanics a little to make use of his raw power. His launch angle was just 6.7 degrees, below the desired launch angle for home runs (10-30).
At the end of the day, Vlad Jr. just turned 21, which is an age where the majority of professional players are still finding their groove in minor league ball. And just like Stanton, playing in the AL East will help him maximize his power and potentially surpass his father’s legendary legacy by conquering Bonds’ single-season HR record.
Aaron Judge: When healthy, Judge could be considered one of the 10 best players in the majors. His power is otherworldly, making him the third fastest player ever to reach 100 career Home Runs. His opposite field power is one of his strengths and playing in Yankee Stadium allows him to exploit that short porch. If he could put together a season of 150+ games, he could give Bonds a run for his money but he’s only done that once in his baseball career.
Ronald Acuña Jr.: Acuña Jr. almost became the newest member of the illustrious 40-40 club, which he missed by failing to get three more stolen bases. The Atlanta Braves superstar joined Mel Ott and Eddie Matthews as the only players to hit more than 40 HR before their age-22 season.
Yordan Alvarez: Alvarez broke into the league and quickly established his mighty power. His .655 SLG is the highest ever for a rookie since Willie McCovey slugged .656 60 years ago. Alvarez is strictly a DH, which plays in his favor because he can focus completely on his hitting and trying to tackle Bonds’ 73-HR record.
Spencer Torkelson: Torkelson was just drafted No.1 overall by the Detroit Tigers a couple of weeks ago. Many consider Torkelson to be a very advanced power hitter at such a young age. Torkelson was drafted out of Arizona State, which coincidentally was the home of Bonds during his college days. Torkelson shattered Bonds’ freshman home run record (11) by hitting 25 HR in 2018. The 2x unanimous All-American hit 54 dingers in just 129 games during his time with the Sun Devils and has the potential to bring that kind of power to the bigs.
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