MLB
Future Impact: Red Sox & Dodgers Blockbuster Mookie Betts Deal
Breaking down the futures of two prominent baseball clubs and premier players involved in this landscape-changing trade
USA TODAY Sports
After a failed first attempt, the Red Sox have officially finalized the revised deal that sends OF Mookie Betts, LHP David Price, and cash ($48M of Price’s $96M remaining contract) to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for OF Alex Verdugo and prospects SS Jeter Downs and C Connor Wong.
Following a season where Betts hit .295/.391/.524, he joins the defending National League MVP, Cody Bellinger, to form the league’s most daunting outfield duo. The 2018 AL MVP will make $27M in arbitration this season and is set to become a free agent after season’s end, where he’s looking to become baseball’s second $400M man.
Getting under the $208M luxury tax threshold to avoid the repeater tax penalty — that is the goal the Red Sox set for themselves two years after winning the World Series. This trade most definitely hurts the Red Sox chances of making the playoffs in 2020. Not only do they lose Betts, but losing Price means that they will have a rotation featuring Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, and… Nathan Eovaldi as their no. 3? Martin Perez as their no. 4? That’s a far cry from the formidable staff’s they put together over the last couple of seasons.
However, the Red Sox know what it’s like to win, lose for a couple of years, and build it back up again. That’s exactly how they won 4 Championships in a 15-year period, none coming within 3 years of each other. They tore it down after 2013, and finished under .500 in 2014 and 2015. A few years later they brought the Commissioner’s Trophy back to Beantown. With the money the Sox have now freed up, they will set a plan to get back to their spending ways in the somewhat near future after resetting the repeater tax penalty in 2020.
The Sox still have All-Star level players like J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Sale, and their most valuable piece right now 3B Rafael Devers. The 23-year old is entering his prime very early and is the early favorite to become the next face of Red Sox baseball.
The Dodgers have assembled a dream team. The best offense in the National League last season will now include Betts, who is regarded by many as one of the top-3 players in the game. This winter, the Dodgers had been relatively quiet in their pursuit for the top players available. They were in on Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon — they ultimately failed to reach either of their high asking prices. They also were in talks with Cleveland in potentially acquiring SS Francisco Lindor— those went nowhere. The Dodgers have spent this winter looking for a superstar, and it looks like they finally got their man.
For LA, this is an opportunity to sell Betts, a free agent after the season, on the Dodgers culture in hopes he signs there long-term. The Dodgers plan is to have Betts, who just turned 27, partner up with Bellinger, 24, for the next eight years, at least. They have a prime opportunity to not only compete this year but contend in every single season of the 2020’s.
Price, on the other hand, is very interesting (but for different reasons than Betts). Price, still a big name, is well past his prime. By joining a deep pitching staff that features the likes of Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw, Price doesn’t have to be the pitcher he was expected to be earlier in his career. It would be in the Dodgers best interest to have Price in a Rich Hill type role— 130 innings a year (4-5 IP/start). With Julio Urias and Dustin May ready to take on a bigger role in the Dodgers’ rotation, there is no reason to throw Price out there for 30 different starts during a long season.
What’s most interesting about David Price’s inclusion is he’s very similar to Clayton Kershaw in the aspect of being arguably the two most accomplished left-handed pitchers of the 2010’s, both Cy Young winners, and known choke artists when it came to the Postseason. Price was able to finally shake that perception after delivering a World Series to Boston in 2018 with four excellent starts down the stretch in October, and maybe part of this deal is that the Dodgers are hoping he can share his learning experience of getting over that hump with their own future Hall of Famer and help Kershaw be as effective in October as he is in April-September.
This is now or never for the Dodgers— expectations have never been higher. The acquisition of Price and Betts is not a move to help them reach the World Series again. It’s a move to help them finally get over the hump and have a parade in LA for the first time since 1988.
A free agent after this season, Betts has one more year to prove to the league that he is worth the $400+ million his agent will be looking for in free agency.
It’s a dream scenario for the 4-time All-Star— joining a team poised to win a World Series with great hitters around him to generate the best run production possible. The Dodgers are a team that is filled with top-tier talent, in a National League that really has no other clear pennant contender. A franchise who has been thirsty for a superstar like Betts to join, and hopefully, decide to stay their long-term. The city of Los Angeles is still mourning the loss of Kobe, but fans can now be excited for another iconic first name legend like Mookie.
A career .301/.374/.519 hitter, Betts is just reaching his prime and has a prime opportunity to do the most damage he’s ever done. The Tennessee native will play with a chip on his shoulders as he enters a new club with huge ambitions and goes into his final year before a highly-anticipated free agency.
After years of turmoil with the fanbase and media, David Price heads out of Boston to begin what will likely be the final stage of his career. Heading into the 2016 season, Price had signed the richest contract in history for a pitcher at the time (7y/$217M)— and that came with a set of strenuous expectations. With the exception of the 2018 postseason, Price failed to live up to those lofty expectations, which led to unfortunate beef with the media and an irritated fanbase.
In LA, he has none of those expectations. He’s no longer supposed to be the pitcher. He’s also finally out of the tough AL East, a division where he’s spent 11 of his 12 years in the league. This move can end up being very good for Price. A change of scenery sounds cliché, but it can work in a situation like this. Price was not liked by many in Boston, and he now embarks to join a team where he has a chance to exceed expectations, not the other way around.
Verdugo will no longer be blocked by the Dodgers deep outfield staff, and will finally get his chance to shine at the big league level. Verdugo, 23, showed last year that he can produce in the bigs. Following a year where he hit .294/.342/.475 in 106 games, it seems like Verdugo is in position to take over right field for the Red Sox, a tough task defensively because of the quirky dimensions in Fenway Park’s right field. But Verdugo isn’t just an offensive-minded player. In fact, he’s near the elite level on the defensive side of the ball. The Arizona native had 13 DRS (defensive runs saved) in the outfield last year. To put in perspective how underrated Verdugo’s defense is, Betts had 15 DRS in 517 more innings during the 2019 season.
Offensively, Verdugo was above-average in his full-season debut, posting a 114 OPS+ last year (100 being league average). He will be handed the tough task of filling in the shoes of Betts. That is an unrealistic expectation, but by default, Sox fans will expect instant production. It might not happen in 2020, but Verdugo could team with Andrew Benintendi as two potential perennial All-Stars in Boston’s OF during the 2020’s. Verdugo will be arbitration eligible in 2022 and is currently eligible to hit free agency in 2025.
The former first-round draft pick in 2017, Jeter Downs, is heading to Boston after being traded for the second time in a year. Last year, Downs was sent from the Cincinatti Reds to the Dodgers in the deal that sent Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig to the Reds.
Downs already projects to be a power-hitting middle infielder. In 2019, between two minor league levels, Downs hit 24 home runs, got on base at a 36% clip, and posted a .888 OPS. Out of the 24 home runs he hit, five came with AA Tulsa where he only played 12 games, but slugged a whopping .688. According to Fangraphs, the 21-year old shortstop finished 2019 as the fifth best prospect in the Dodgers system.
As for his future with the Red Sox, it’s still unclear what position he’ll end up playing. With Bogaerts already inked for at least five more seasons, it is probable that the Sox move Downs to second base when he reaches the Bigs, a position where the Red Sox have lacked production since Dustin Pedroia was sidelined indefinitely by injuries. It would be very interesting if Boston’s last true franchise player (Pedroia) ends up getting permanently replaced by a man named Jeter (named after Hall of Famer, and All-time Yankee legend, Derek Jeter).
Connor Wong, 23, can absolutely mash the baseball. In 2019, Wong hit 24 home runs and drove in 82 RBI’s between Single-A and Double-A. His only problem currently is plate discipline, striking out 143 times last season between the two levels. Strike outs can be a problem in the future, but if he continues to post elite numbers like he did this past season, the punch-outs will just be an afterthought.
Currently, the Red Sox are very thin in the catching department with Kevin Plawecki as their only true backup option to Christian Vasquez. Wong could instantly step-in as their no. 3 option behind Plawecki as soon as later this season, and could eventually take over for Vasquez when his contract expires after 2022. Wong finished 2019 as the Dodgers’ 14th best prospect, per Fangraphs.
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