NFL
Major Money Trends That Matter for NFL Week 3
The most important betting trends to know for every game in NFL Week 3 including the Trend of the Week and more that can make money!
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Here are some interesting money trends that showcase some tendencies that have occurred recently and could reveal a valuable investment for NFL Week 3.
Game: Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns (currently at O/U 44.5)
TREND: CLE OVER in last 5 games
Despite having one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL since Kevin Stefanski took over in 2020, Cleveland continuously has low Over/Unders set for their games. Combine that with the Browns mediocre defense and Justin Fields getting his first start in the state he shined in during College and this has all the makings of smashing the low over/under total once again.
Pick: OVER 44.5 (-110)
Game: Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (currently at LAC +7)
TREND: Chiefs ATS in last 7 games
While Kansas City may finish with the best record in the league this year (again), they are far from a lock to even go over .500 against the spread. They can decimate weaker opponents, but they often fail to live up to the betting line given to them as they’ve only beat the spread once in the last seven weeks while the Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games. Justin Herbert will look to build on his strong rookie campaign against the NFL’s best QB in Patrick Mahomes.
Pick: LAC +7 (-115)
Game: Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (currently at O/U 51.5)
TREND: ARZ UNDER on the road
Arizona Cardinals have a high-scoring offense but continuously have an over/under that overvalues their scoring ability when on the road, especially when flying across the country to Duval county against a Jacksonville offense that has struggled to get going so far.
Pick: UNDER 51.5 (-110)
Game: Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants (currently at NYG -3)
TREND: Giants ATS vs. NFC teams
The New York Giants are due for a win with the way Daniel Jones is playing this year and they’re only given -3 at home against a historically bad Falcons defense. They’ve feasted on disrespectful trends against NFC opponents with Joe Judge as HC and a bonus trend is the Falcons are 1-6 in their last seven September games, showing Matt Ryan usually takes some time to get the offense going, especially in a whole new system under Arthur Smith.
Pick: NYG -3 (-110)
Game: Washington Football Team @ Buffalo Bills (currently at BUF -7)
TREND: Bills ATS vs. NFC opponents
With Josh Allen at the helm, the Bills have blown through NFC competition with a 6-2 record SU the last two years and an even more impressive 6-0 ATS mark since the second half of 2019. Washington is coming off a long week with an energized Taylor Heinicke looking good but DC is likely no match for a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations in Buffalo.
Pick: BUF -7 (-115)
Game: Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions (currently at BAL -7.5)
TREND: Ravens ATS in last 10 games
The Baltimore Ravens have consistently beaten the spread in 2020 and 2021 as they’ve exceeded Vegas’ expectations in eight of their last 10 games, including their SNF win over the Chiefs in Week 2. There’s no reason they can’t keep it rolling against a bottom-5 Detroit team.
Pick: BAL -7.5 (-110)
Game: Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (currently at PIT -140)
TREND: Steelers at home against the Bengals
Simply put, the Pittsburgh Steelers don’t lose to the Cincinnati Bengals at home. It hasn’t been since a 16-10 defensive showdown in 2015 that Mike Tomlin’s squad fell to Marvin Lewis’ group but those were under completely different circumstances and hatred between the two teams. Unless Joe Burrow can somehow go off against a T.J. Watt-less Steelers squad, Pittsburgh should walk away with the win for the sixth straight year against Cincy in Heinz Field.
Pick: PIT ML (-140)
Game: Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (currently at TEN -4.5)
TREND: Colts ATS vs. Tennessee
The Indianapolis Colts have a history of beating the Titans in Tennessee (8-1 SU in last 9 games @TEN) but with Carson Wentz questionable (sprained ankles) for this Week 3 matchup, that’s a tough bet to make. However, whether they have Wentz or Jacob Eason starting at QB, expect the Colts to lay it all on the line against their only competition in the division to avoid an 0-3 start and at least keep it close against a run-heavy Titans team.
Pick: IND +4.5 (-105)
Game: New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots (currently at O/U 43)
TREND: Patriots OVER vs. Saints
Every time the Saints play the Patriots, fireworks seem to follow. While that was with all-time legends Tom Brady and Drew Brees leading the way, Mac Jones and Jameis Winston have proven capable of lighting it up themselves. They don’t even have to do that here as the O/U is an extremely low figure that might be surpassed before the fourth quarter even begins.
Pick: OVER 43 -110
Game: Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders (currently at LVR -3.5)
TREND: Dolphins ATS in last 14 games
There is always at least one trap game on the schedule each week in the NFL. With Tua Tagovailoa out this week and Vegas off to an impressive 2-0 start, it’s highly questionable to see a spread so low at -3.5. This means the oddsmakers want the public to hammer the Raiders in Las Vegas so the sharp money should be on the team that continuously beats the spread (as the trend above shows) and Miami is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Raiders. Jacoby Brissett is capable of winning a game or at least keeping it to within a field goal.
Pick: MIA +3.5 (-115)
Game: New York Jets @ Denver Broncos (currently at DEN O/U 27 PTS)
TREND: Broncos under 27 PTS in last 10 games
The Denver Broncos have looked good with Teddy Bridgewater at QB so far, but their two wins are against the Giants and Jaguars. The Jets aren’t much better but the defense hasn’t allowed 27 points one time under Robert Saleh so far and as the trend shows, the Broncos rarely cross that threshold.
Pick: DEN UNDER 27 (-120)
Game: Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (currently at O/U 55)
TREND: Vikings OVERS in last 5 games
The Minnesota Vikings defense is still horrible. Seattle’s defense is not good. The Seahawks and Vikings both have three high-quality weapons and a QB that can air it out. Minnesota overs are undefeated in their last five games and damn near unbeaten at home in 2020. This was close to being the trend of the week even with a sky-high 55 O/U number.
Pick: OVER 55 (-110)
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams (currently at O/U 55.5)
TREND: Rams UNDER at home
The reigning NFL champions are facing their #1 contender in the NFC. People are expecting a shootout between Tom Brady and Matt Stafford which is why the oddsmakers gave this the highest O/U (55.5) of the week. When the public is going to be smashing the over, that’s when it’s time to take the under, especially with the knowledge of the Rams continuously holding opponents in check at home.
Pick: UNDER 55.5 (-110)
Game: Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (currently at O/U 50.5)
TREND: Packers vs. 49ers OVER in last 12 games
Both of these teams lit it up against Detroit and struggled immensely offensively during their other game. That might say more about the Lions’ historically bad defense than it does about either of these teams though. It’s probably best to expect something in between those showings. The 49ers and Packers each have money trends favoring the over with the most significant ones being 9-3 in the last 12 SF vs. GB games and 5-1 in Green Bay’s last six games.
Pick: OVER 50.5 (-110)
Game: Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (currently at DAL -3.5)
TREND: Cowboys ATS in last 6 games
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line is banged up as Brandon Brooks and Jordan Mailata are both out while Brandon Graham tore his Achilles and Rodney McLeod is missing another game. Usually, an NFC East game can go either way but with the injuries mounting for Philly, and Dallas being a cover machine lately, taking the Cowboys at -3.5 seems like the move on Monday Night Football.
Pick: DAL -3.5 (-105)
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