FULL ARTICLE: Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Every NFL Team Ahead of the 2020 Season by Ben Linsey, Pro Football Focus
MOST VALUABLE INTEL: The Lions have one of the best rosters but one of the worst track records in the NFL
Experts can make their detailed predictions and in-depth projections, but it’s essentially a glorified guess as to how successful teams will be in this upcoming 2020 season. The Chiefs and 49ers are expected to cruise back into the postseason, however, the two could fall victim to uncontrollable factors such as unexpected coaching strategies and season-ending injuries. In an effort to represent the full range of possibilities for each NFL organization, PFF used countless simulation results to calculate the range (high and low) of win projection for the 2020 season.
Let’s start with the worst-case scenario; the 10th percentile outcome. The Detroit Lions are a prime example of a franchise that has failed to live up to expectations, but have made the right moves to surprise the league this winter. The team’s floor is ending the season at 5-11, assuming Stafford struggles during his return from injury. After losing CB Darius Slay in FA, the defense could also take a hit, ranking near the bottom of the league for a second straight year in pressure rate (29th in 2019) and PPG allowed (25th in 2019).
On the other side of the spectrum (90th percentile), the Lions’ ceiling is a 10-6 record. In this case, Stafford settles in as a top-10 passer and rookies CB Jeffrey Okudah, RB D’Andre Swift, and EDGE Julian Okwara all fill in the gaps, allowing Detroit to be a true worst-to-first candidate. This roster is fully capable of finishing the season at the top of the NFC North, but history says they’ll be closer to the cellar once again.