NFL
Pro Insights From All Major NFL Pre-Free Agency Moves
Grading/Evaluating all of the significant pre-Free Agency moves
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This page will continue to be updated with evaluations, grades, & insights on every major NFL move before Free Agency really kicks off on Monday, March 16.
TRANSACTION: Ravens use the Franchise Tag on EDGE Matt Judon for $18M in 2020
For a primer on what the colors mean, click here. For BAL’s full Team Outlook, click here.Pro Insight: Ravens Don’t Yet Trust Young Guns on the Edge
Matt Judon was one of the most underrated Edge Rushers in the NFL before this season as he was a productive player among Baltimore’s defensive front for years, but finally earned his first Pro Bowl appearance in 2019. 2019 was an opportunity for Judon to shine with franchise EDGE Terrell Suggs departing for Arizona and Za’Darius Smith signing a big deal in Green Bay.
Baltimore handed the keys to former 5th Rd Pick Judon to step up in his rookie contract year, and Judon delivered. Tyus Bowser is in a similar position entering 2020, but Baltimore isn’t ready for him to be their top Edge Rusher. One of this year’s Super Bowl favorites wants proven high-caliber play at the position which Judon provides. Bowser & Ferguson barely have 1,000 combined snaps between them and will have to establish themselves in 2020 for the Ravens to consider that duo carrying the torch going forward.
2020 Cap: -$18M
Grade: B-
TRANSACTION: Ravens acquire EDGE Calais Campbell from the Jacksonville Jaguars for a 2020 5th Rd Pick & extended him to a 2y/$25M deal
For a primer on what the colors mean, click here. For BAL’s full Team Outlook, click here.Pro Insight: Ravens Game Plan Will Be Hard to Stop
While the NFL is zigging, the Ravens are zagging. This became clear in 2019 when Lamar Jackson took over the offense and Baltimore focused on a ground-and-pound run game. The best way for an opposing team to beat them (as KC, CLE, and TEN all did) was to successfully pass the ball against Baltimore’s defense. While the Ravens will likely win the possession battle every game, if the opposing team can quickly score through the air, all of that gets negated.
However, the Ravens realize if they continuously put pressure on the opposing QB, their chances of winning will rise significantly more than other teams that utilize that strategy, due to Baltimore’s historic rushing offense. Calais Campbell is still one of the best in the game at getting to the passer and now provides the Ravens with one of the most stacked EDGE groups heading into 2020, all for $20M guaranteed over two years and a 5th Rd Pick they acquired for a kicker.
2020 Cap: -$15M
Grade: A+
TRANSACTION: Bears re-sign LB Danny Trevathan to a 3y/$21.8M deal that includes 2.2M incentives
For a primer on what the colors mean, click here. For CHI’s full Team Outlook, click here.Pro Insight: Bears Desperately Want to Keep Defense Intact
Danny Trevathan had a track record that warranted a $7MM+ AAV deal entering 2019, but after a mediocre season that ended prematurely with an elbow injury, it’s hard to believe he’d be able to land a $22M deal on the market.
However, Chicago also has Nick Kwiatoski entering Free Agency who’ll now likely sign elsewhere for starter’s money and their star 1st Rd Pick from 2018 Roquan Smith who struggled in 2019. Smith still has Pro Bowl potential, but Chicago’s LB situation was full of question marks entering this offseason. While Trevathan’s $22M deal was probably an overpay, it at least gives Chicago some answers in the middle of their defense for the near future. With a murky QB situation, keeping Chicago’s defense intact is the one thing that will give their fans optimism for the 2020 season.
2020 Cap: -$7.3M (on average)
Grade: D
TRANSACTION: Bengals release OT Cordy Glenn, saving $9.5M in 2020 cap space
Pro Insight: Jonah Williams is a 2020 Breakout Candidate
If Cordy Glenn was still on Cincinnati’s roster in 2020, it’s likely the veteran would’ve kept his spot at Left Tackle and the young Jonah Williams would have to adapt to playing on the opposite side. The Bengals made the decision that not only saving $9.5M, but preventing Jonah Williams from slowing his learning curve as a professional blindside protector was worth getting rid of Glenn’s services, who missed 10 games in 2019. Jonah Williams will essentially be a rookie in 2020 after missing the season with a torn labrum, and will look to protect another rookie in Joe Burrow from ferocious AFC North Edge Rushers like TJ Watt & Myles Garrett.
Cap Space: +$9.5M
Grade: C+
TRANSACTION: Broncos use the Franchise Tag on S Justin Simmons for $11.6M in 2020
Pro Insight: Denver Keeps Top Safety Tandem Intact
Off the top of the head, many safety tandems likely come to mind as the NFL’s best before Denver. Minnesota with Harrison Smith & Anthony Harris, Chicago with Eddie Jackson & Ha Ha Clinton Dix, and New Orleans with Marcus Williams & Vonn Bell all have a good case to claim the top spot. However, Anthony Harris is a free agent in Minnesota, so Denver franchise tagging Justin Simmons, assuring his place on the 2020 roster, gives them the current right to be called the top safety tandem in the league with Jackson & Simmons both coming off of career years in 2019.
Cap Space: -$11.6M
Grade: A-
TRANSACTION: Lions release OT Ricky Wagner, saving $6.1M in 2020 cap space
Pro Insight: Free Agent OT’s Seem to Rarely Pay Off
The track record of how high-paying Free Agent Offensive Tackles perform won’t do any favors for the 2020 class of free agent OT’s looking to cash out. Trent Brown’s rough start in 2019 was another example of a free agent OT failing to meet expectations like Nate Solder, Riley Reiff, Russell Okung, Chris Hubbard, and now Ricky Wagner have all failed to do as well. Buyer beware on signing Free Agent big men to big deals.
Cap Space: +$6.1M
Grade: C
TRANSACTION: Packers release TE Jimmy Graham, saving $8M in 2020 cap space
Pro Insight: Jimmy Graham’s Career Has Dwindled Significantly
Many Remember Jimmy Graham from his All-Pro run in New Orleans. Graham has been blessed with catching passes from three of the greatest QBs of this generation in Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers. However, his two years in Green Bay are proof that he’s nowhere near the high-level player he was in New Orleans, or even Seattle. He can still be a starter in this league, but is likely limited to one-year deals for the rest of his career, and won’t be relied upon to be a first, second, or even third option in a Playoff-caliber offense.
Cap Space: +$8M
Grade: A
TRANSACTION: Texans re-sign CB Bradley Roby to a 3y/$36M deal with $17M guaranteed
Pro Insight: Houston’s Doubling Down on 2019 Moves
With Bill O’Brien fully in charge of the coaching and football roster operations, he went all-in in last offseason, acquiring OT Laremy Tunsil, WR Kenny Stills, RB Duke Johnson, RB Carlos Hyde, & CB Gareon Conley for future draft picks and signing DB’s Tashuan Gipson and Bradley Roby to sizable deals. Despite allowing a historic Playoff comeback, Houston is keeping their foot on the gas pedal with an elite QB in place on a rookie deal, and a rare window to allocate those resources elsewhere in hopes of competing for a Super Bowl. Expect the Texans to continue spending resources on win-now moves.
Cap Space: -$12M (on average)
Grade: B+
TRANSACTION: Colts re-sign OT Anthony Castonzo to a 2y/$33M deal with $17M guaranteed
Pro Insight: Colts are the Early Favorite for Best OL in 2020
When it comes to evaluating Offensive Lines, information is limited. There aren’t yards, touchdowns, or block % stats that can quantify a player’s production. Instead, film reveals who are the successful O-Lines and who aren’t. Nobody evaluates film better than the analysts at PFF. So PFF’s OL rankings for the 2019 season carry the most weight in this debate. They rightfully declared the Eagles the best OL in 2019, but Brandon Brooks (PFF’s #1 rated OL in 2019) & Lane Johnson couldn’t finish the season, while Jason Peters will likely be wearing a different jersey in 2020. With that being said, Philly likely won’t repeat as the premier O-Line in 2020, and Indy has a right to be called the early favorite with their young group all coming back this season.
Cap Space: -$17M
Grade: B+
TRANSACTION: Jaguars use the Franchise Tag on EDGE Yannick Ngakoue for $18M in 2020
For a primer on what the colors mean, click here. For JAX’s full Team Outlook, click here.Pro Insight: Ngakoue is Back in JAX, but Probably Not for Long
Yannick Ngakoue would’ve challenged Jadeveon Clowney as the most expensive Edge Rusher in Free Agency this year. Instead, the Jaguars will keep their Pro Bowl DE in place to maintain a top-tier pass rushing unit, at least for now. Calais Campbell has been one of the best in the business for years and Josh Allen looks to be on the verge of superstardom himself. Ngakoue could be a near-$100M player himself if he was able to test the market.
For Jacksonville, they probably would benefit more in 2020 by spending that amount of money on other positions of need, but Nagakoue is easily worth the 1y/$18M Franchise Tag for 2020. Instead of letting him walk for nothing in Free Agency, Jacksonville could very likely be tagging him for the purpose of trading him to a team willing to sign him to a large deal AND give up assets to Jacksonville as well. Teams like Seattle, Arizona, & New York could be prime destinations.
2020 Cap: -$18M
Grade: A
TRANSACTION: Chargers use the Franchise Tag on TE Hunter Henry for $10.7M in 2020
For a primer on what the colors mean, click here. For LAC’s full Team Outlook, click here.Pro Insight: Chargers Stacking Up on Weapons for New QB
Philip Rivers was the Chargers franchise Quarterback for a decade and a half. However, LA has announced that they’re moving on from the 8x Pro Bowl QB, and will look to the market for their next signal-caller. This move to keep Hunter Henry in the fold isn’t all about Tom Brady, but it certainly doesn’t hurt that the Chargers #1 target in Free Agency has had the most success when he has a high-quality TE to throw to.
Henry is worth the $10.7M Franchise Tag either way, although he’s not deserving of being the highest-paid TE in the league, which the tag currently places him at. This could be the first step to a long-term deal or a prove-it year for the oft-injured TE who’s yet to put up 700 receiving yards in a season.
Cap Space: -$10.7M
Grade: B+
TRANSACTION: Dolphins release S Reshad Jones, saving $5.4M in 2020 cap space
Pro Insight: Miami Has Depth at Safety
It’s rare to identify any position group in Miami as having ‘depth’ but that’s exactly what Miami had before and after Reshad Jones’ release at Safety. Steven Parker proved to be a terrific waiver claim in 2019 as he ended up ranking as a top-30 PFF Safety. McCain wasn’t as consistent and finished the year on the IR, but showed in 2017 he’s more than capable of being a quality starting Defensive Back.
Nobody knows exactly what to expect from Adrian Colbert in 2020, but if he repeats his 2019 season, he’ll be one of the better Dime Safeties in the league. Reshad Jones was a 2x Pro Bowler in Miami, but after missing 12 games in 2019, Jones wasn’t worth the $5.5M in cap savings for the Dolphins with three other quality safety options also in place for 2020.
Cap Space: +$5.4M
Grade: C+
TRANSACTION: Vikings release CB Xavier Rhodes, saving $8.1M in 2020 cap space
For a primer on what the colors mean, click here. For MIN’s full Team Outlook, click here.Pro Insight: Rhodes Closed in 2019 & Moving Elsewhere in 2020
Xavier Rhodes was one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL for the last few years before 2019 came. This sterling reputation even led him to a 3rd Pro Bowl appearance in 2019, but don’t let the public’s lack of knowledge change the narrative: Xavier Rhodes was well-below average this season. The former All-Pro struggled in coverage all year that led to PFF ranking him 107th of the 113 qualified CBs this season. Rhodes will be 30 years old in 2020 and unless short-term injuries had played a major role in his recent demise, his best days are likely behind him.
Cap Space: +$8.1M
Grade: A
TRANSACTION: Vikings release DL Linval Joseph, saving $10.4M in 2020 cap space
For a primer on what the colors mean, click here. For MIN’s full Team Outlook, click here.Pro Insight: Could Be Time for Armon Watts to Step Up in Minny
The Vikings will likely add another contributor on the defensive interior after releasing Linval Joseph, but if there’s one takeaway from this move, it’s the opportunity Armon Watts has going forward. Joseph had two more years left on his 4y/$50.4M deal, but with his absence, Watts will have every opportunity to prove his promising rookie season can translate into 600+ snaps a year of quality production. Watts only has 127 snaps to his name but showed signs that he could be a real contributor for Minnesota in the future.
Cap Space: +$10.4M
Grade: C
TRANSACTION: Patriots re-sign S Devin McCourty to a 2y/$23M deal including $17M guaranteed
For a primer on what the colors mean, click here. For NE’s full Team Outlook, click here.Pro Insight: New England’s Prosperity Now Fueled by Secondary
Few people seem to appreciate New England’s defensive backfield as the most dominant group in Foxborough. However, real Pats fans and NFL evaluators alike began to recognize that transition in 2019 that culminated in CB Stephon Gilmore winning Defensive Player of the Year. Devin McCourty was the other elite player in that group that led the NFL’s #1 defense in 2019. The casual fan sees Tom Brady and Julian Edelman as the main catalysts to the Patriots success, but the film and numbers showed the secondary making a more consistent positive impact this year. Defensive captain Devin McCourty is a big part of that. Keeping him in Massachusetts for another two years makes sense for a lot of reasons.
Cap Space: -$11.5M
Grade: A-
TRANSACTION: Titans release TE Delanie Walker, saving $6.4M in 2020 cap space
For a primer on what the colors mean, click here. For TEN’s full Team Outlook, click here.Pro Insight: Walker’s Injuries Too Much to Overcome
Delanie Walker started his time in Tennessee with five consecutive seasons of 550+ receiving yards that included three consecutive Pro Bowls. However, his time in Nashville ended with only eight games over the last two years and only a combined 267 yards during that time. They say the best ability is availability and with the 35-year-old struggling with that, it became clear that the $6.4M in cap space could be better spent elsewhere, especially with Jonnu Smith looking like he can handle the starting TE position just fine.
Cap Space: +$6.4M
Grade: A-
TRANSACTION: Titans release EDGE Cameron Wake, saving $5.5M in 2020 cap space
Pro Insight: Cameron Wake is No Longer a Threat
For a long period of time, Cameron Wake was THE MAN in Miami, but during his one year in Tennessee, he was just another man on the team. While the Titans surprisingly made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game in 2019, Wake played a very minor role, only playing in nine games (195 snaps) and missing the final six weeks of the season and three postseason games. It made the move to save $5.5M in cap space instead of keeping Wake’s presence an easy decision.
Cap Space: +$5.5M
Grade: A
TRANSACTION: Titans sign QB Ryan Tannehill to a 4y/$118M deal with $62M guaranteed
Pro Insight: Short Sample Size Success Can Lead to a Substantial Salary
The Titans were 2-4 with Marcus Mariota before promoting Ryan Tannehill to the starting QB position. Tannehill led Tennessee to a 7-3 record and two road playoff wins to clinch an AFC Championship appearance for the first time in Franchise history since Steve McNair won MVP in 2003. Tannehill was worth only a 4th Rd Pick before the season after varying ACL injuries and unspectacular play when healthy.
However, a three month run of being one of the most productive QBs in the NFL (NFL-best 9.6 Y/A & 117.5 RATE along w/ 27 TD | 6 INT) sparked a lucrative 4y/$118M deal that seemed near unfathomable a few months ago. Many expertS quickly compared the deal to Nick Foles that the Jags clearly regret just a year later. Tannehill will have to prove 2019 was no fluke before evaluators get on board with handing that kind of money to a 32-year-old passer with his overall body of work.
Cap Space: -$22.5M
Grade: C
More pre-Free Agency moves will continue to be added to this article as they happen. Refresh to check for any updates.
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