By Mike Stearman, PSO Director of Basketball Operations
Jun 25, 2019

Uncertain times are ahead, Wizards fans. With only five players under contract next season, the Washington Wizards could lose depth at every position. Assuming DC decides to keep the one healthy star they have, and not give in to trade rumors, this next crop of free agent signings has long-term implications. they’ve got to pursue players that fit with Bradley Beal, but cheap enough to keep the cap space for Beal’s hopeful extension. Tall order, especially without a permanent General Manager of Basketball Operations. If the Wizards do turn to the free agent market, here’s five guys that should get a look.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8l7xeBD94c

With John Wall out for likely the entire season and Tomas Satoransky potentially on the move, the Wizards are in need of a point guard. Darren Collison is a blend of consistency and experience that’ll stabilize a shaky franchise. An underrated element of a playoff Pacers team, he stepped up after Victor Oladipo went down halfway through the season with a ruptured quad tendon. Before the injury, Collison averaged 9.2 points, 5.6 assists on 38% shooting from three compared to 13.2 points, 6.6 assists on 44% after. 

On the Wizards, he’d alleviate ball-handling duties from Bradley Beal, who thrives setting himself up off-ball. Stylistically, Collison has experience playing alongside a Beal-type player with Oladipo in Indiana; the chemistry will form quickly. A career 39% three-point shooter, Collison will create space for an offense that shot 34.1% beyond the arc last season, 4th-worst in the league. 

Collison is 31 years old and as history shows, short point guards are injury-prone and don’t usually age well (Isiah Thomas, Allen Iverson, Mo Williams). The Wizards could squeeze 1-2 prime seasons out of Collison, and utilize him in a backup role behind John Wall in the years that followed if they were to offer a multi-year deal.

Outlook: Floor general, backup point guard when Wall returns

Contract: 2 years, $12 million

Bradley Beal played valiantly last season. Leading the league in total minutes (3,028) and MPG (36.9), he posted career highs in points, assists, rebounds, steals and blocks. That being said, it’s nonsensical to wear out an All-Star in his prime for another year just to win 32 games. If the Wizards are serious about keeping Beal long-term, they can’t run him into the ground. Rodney Hood would give Beal a reliable backup and provide instant scoring off the bench. 

Hood and Beal have strikingly similar playing styles. Looking at their shot distribution, both Beal and Hood take over 65% of their shots from either catch and shoot or pull-ups. With a defender within 2-4 feet, Hood and Beal shoot 46.2% and 51.9% respectively, and both their percentages actually drop the more open they get. Hood shot 35.6% from three last year compared to Beal’s 35.1%. These guys play the same style, Beal is just much more effective (25.6 PPG vs. 11.2 PPG).

Adding Hood would simplify turning to the bench for head coach Scott Brooks. Instead of adjusting the offense for incoming personnel, Hood’s “Bealish” playing style allows it to run like Beal is actually out there, albeit a lesser version. If the Wizards keep Wall and Beal as the backcourt of the future, Beal can’t shoulder the same workload as last season. Hood proved in last years playoffs he can make valuable contributions, giving just enough to keep Beal fresh moving forward.

Outlook: Backup wing, 6th man

Contract: 2 years, $13 million

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbPlhxZ8q70

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has the potential to fit into the Wizards long-term plans. After trading Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre Jr. last season, Washington is depleted at the small forward position. A key member of the 2nd best bench in the NBA last season, Hollis-Jefferson could thrive if given the chance at a starting spot.

Hollis-Jefferson’s defense will greatly benefit the Wizards, who finished 27th in the league in defensive rating last season. On the Nets, opponents’ offensive rating dropped 3.1 points per 100 possessions when Hollis-Jefferson stepped on the floor. Per 36 minutes he averaged 1.3 steals and 0.8 blocks, a solid balance as a small forward. Hollis-Jefferson will take the toughest defensive assignment each night, allowing Bradley Beal to conserve much-needed energy for offense. Greatly underutilized on the Nets, Hollis-Jefferson will improve one of the NBA’s worst defensive units.

Outlook: Starting SF, defensive stopper

Contract: 3 years, $18 million 

One of the Wizards glaring weaknesses last season was their lack of presence in the paint. Dwight Howard played in nine games while Thomas Bryant and Ian Mahinmi looked like they were running in quicksand on defense. This season, the Wizards need a dynamic, athletic center who can rebound and protect the paint. Nerlens Noel fits that description.

Ranking 29th last season in opponents points in the paint, the Wizards desperately need a rim protector. Of all the centers in the NBA who played at least 60 games, Noel finished third in defensive field goal percentage and second in defensive rating.  The Wizards were also one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA last season, finishing 26th in boards per game. Due to the fact he plays behind Steven Adams, one of the NBA’s best true centers, Noel’s raw numbers aren’t that impressive. Per 36 minutes, however, Noel averaged 11.1 rebounds. When given the start in the fifth game of last season, he threw up 20 and 15. 

Offensively he’s limited, but that’s not what the Wizards need him for. Thomas Bryant is likely to walk in free agency while Mahinmi’s and Howard’s contracts only have one year left. At age 25, Noel would fit in with Wizards future plans.

Outlook: Backup center, rim protector

Contract: 2 years, $6.5 million

Brook Lopez is on every teams’ wish list this summer. Seven-footers who post up and drain 3’s don’t exactly grow on trees, and he’ll receive plenty of offers around the league. That shouldn’t stop the Wizards from trying. 

First of all, Lopez’s ability to play beyond the three-point line gives Beal a brand-new option to run the two-man game. Last season, Beal averaged .94 points per possession as the ball handler in pick and rolls, better than 75% of the league. Keep in mind, all those screens are being set by either Thomas Bryant or Ian Mahinmi, whose range don’t extend beyond the restricted area. Give Beal a big man with the ability to roll to the basket and pop out to the three-point line, and he could become one of the most dynamic pick and roll players in the league.

A prominent feature of their offense, the Wizards took the most “spot-up” shots in the NBA last season. Unfortunately, they were in the bottom third of efficiency. Lopez, on the other hand, is a very efficient spot up shooter and his range will give rookie Rui Hachimura more space to develop. A 6’7″ power forward with limited range, most of Hachimura’s offensive production this season will be around the rim and mid-range jumpers. Lopez’s spacing will free up the lane, making life simpler for the rookie. 

Defensively, Lopez is also no joke. Milwaukee’s rim protection was best in the NBA last season and Lopez was a big part of that. Washington on the other hand allowed the eighth-worst FG% within six feet (63.5%), while Lopez had the third best defensive FG% (51.1%) of centers that played at least sixty games.

Lopez is a malleable player that will fit wherever the Wizards put him. Known for his offense and floor spacing, his defense is an added bonus. If the Wizards are able to land him, he’ll help develop Hachimura and give the Wizards some flexibility on both sides of the floor. 

Outlook: Starting center, floor spacer, & rim protector

Contract: 3 years, $20 million

McConnell has shown he’s capable of running a second unit in Philadelphia, although he’ll need to do more in Wall’s absence. If he can manage to take the wheel every now and then to give Bradley Beal a breather, he’ll do just fine.

McConnell posted a career high 54% effective field goal percentage last year while averaging career-low 1.2 turnovers, both indicators of a player who knows his role and doesn’t try to do too much. Although he’ll primarily be a backup, McConnell will help the Wizards culture. The dude is a hustler, and that type of play is infectious. An undrafted free agent, he’ll bring a spark to an otherwise detached franchise. 

Outlook: Backup point guard, role player

Contract: 2 years, $5 million

Sound familiar Wizards fans?

Yes, this is the same Mike Scott who Washington let walk after 2018. He had one of his best years in Washington, averaging the second most points in his career on 53% shooting. His three-point ability (40% over the past four seasons) enables the Wizards to test some funky small-ball lineups with Hachimura at center. Experienced in Scott Brooks’ system, Mike Scott would be right back at home.

Outlook: Backup PF, familiar veteran

Contract: 1 year, $1.5 million