By Michael Grammenos, PSO Sports Research Analyst
Dec 20, 2019

Now that sports wagering has become legal and significantly more popular, many people enjoy getting more invested into the games. The best way to be successful making money from sports wagering is by having the right information available to understand the best bets to make. Here are some interesting money trends that showcases some tendencies that have occurred recently and could reveal a valuable investment for NFL Week 16, powered by Trnds Sports. Check out the previous Money Trends that are now 27-16 (63%) on the year.

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Game: HOU@TB (currently at HOU -2.5)

TREND: Bucs at home
  • SU: 2-4-0 (33%) last 6 games
  • ATS: 0-5-1 (0%) last 6 games
 

BONUS TREND: Bucs as underdogs

  • SU: 1-4-0 (20%) last 5 games
  • ATS: 1-4-0 (20%) last 5 games
 

Houston is coming into this game with playoff aspirations on their mind against a Tampa Bay team dealing with key injuries. While Deandre Hopkins and Will Fuller will both be suiting up in this one, both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are hurt, making it all the more difficult for Jameis Winston. Motivation can have an impact in the last couple of weeks for teams trying to make the playoffs vs. teams already eliminated. At the same time, a team trying to play spoiler can always be on a coaches mind. 

Desean Watson has continued to play at an All-Star level and one can expect him to turn it up with a playoff birth on the line. Jameis Winston is the streakiest quarterback this year, leading the league in passing yards and interceptions, which typically leads to questions betting against him. Without his two main weapons, Houston should be able to eliminate long plays and keep Tampa Bay in front of them. An elite performance by Watson paired with a solid outing by the defense gets the job done.  

Game: LAR@SF (currently at O/U 45)

TREND: 49ers OVERS

  • OU: 6-2-0 (75%) last 8 games
 

Sean McVay had one of his worst play calling games as a head coach last week, besides some late time touchdowns to pack the stats. That was against a Dallas Cowboys defense who is subpar this year, compared to Los Angeles’ opponent this week, ranked 2nd in total defense. The running game for Los Angeles never got going and in turn made it difficult for Jared Goff to find a rhythm. Seeing that happen back to back weeks at that level would be quite surprising. 

With McVay likely to pull out the best his playbook has to offer this week, another mastermind in Kyle Shanahan controls the offense on the other sideline and has his 49ers currently ranked 6th in offense while controlling the run game. Not much of an argument needs to made for this dynamic offense to put up points. San Francisco can get the #1 seed if they can win out and Los Angeles still has a chance to make the playoffs. Expect these coaches to call some of their best plays in significant situations and try to win a crucial Week 16 divisional matchup.  

Game: BAL@CLE (currently at BAL -9.5)

TREND: Ravens on the road

  • SU: 5-0-0 (100%) this season in last 5 games
  • ATS: 4-0-1 (100%) this season in last 5 games
 

BONUS TREND: Ravens last 8 games

  • SU: 8-0-0 (100%) last 8 games
  • ATS: 7-1-0 (88%) last 8 games
 

Baltimore is playing some of the best ball that we’ve seen in recent memory, all led by the Most Valuable Player in the league this season: Lamar Jackson. Winning just one of these next two games clinches them the #1 seed in the AFC and home field throughout the playoffs. Baltimore is 6-1 at home this year with their only loss coming to….the Cleveland Browns. The motivation for beating an opponent that is the only team to come into your stadium and beat you is near an all-season high. Kyler Murray ran wild last week against Cleveland, it’d only make sense to expect Lamar Jackson to do the same. Baltimore is the team to beat this year and is looking to coast toward clinching the AFC.

Game: GB@MIN (currently at O/U 45)

TREND: Vikings UNDERS in division home games

  • OU: 16-2-0 (89%) last 18 games
 

A trend like the one above (89% hit rate on a sample of 18) is hard to lay off, and the situation surrounding this game presents good potential for another hit. While Green Bay is up there with the elites of the NFC, they’ve come out with wins in some close and sloppy games. Seven out of their eleven wins have been one possession games and going into Minnesota will be just as tough as any opponent they’ve faced. Minnesota is coming into this game with a key injury for Dalvin Cook, which should limit the offense and especially Kirk Cousins. Green Bay ranks in the bottom ten in rush defense, making an injury to Cook worth all the more. Expect a close game here with one coach being in his first year and the other being defensive driven.

Game: NO@TEN (currently at NO -2.5)

TREND: Saints on the road

  • OU: 12-3-0 last 15 games (80%)
  • ATS: 11-4-0 last 15 games (73%)
 

Ryan Tannehill has come in and impressed as the starter for Tennessee, making a case to get paid this offseason. One thing to note however, out of those nine games Tannehill has started in, only two of those teams have a winning record (Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans). While this run has been impressive, the line seems to be overvaluing their recent success. Sean Payton is used to playing in these games late in the season and with a #1 seed on the line, expect New Orleans to come out hot. The Saints’ 4th ranked run defense will help neutralize Derrick Henry and make Tannehill beat them through the air. If the Titans were to win this game, it’d send shockwaves throughout the NFL that the Titans are a Super Bowl dark horse team that can beat anyone in the cold weather and that the Saints might be losing steam with significant injuries piling up. 

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