Two weeks into Spring Training, Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman was the bearer of bad news, announcing that 2x All-Star SP Luis Severino required Tommy John surgery. After only throwing 20.1 innings in 2019 (incl. postseason) due to a rotator cuff injury and a lat strain, Severino is now going to miss the entirety of 2020 and likely part of the 2021 season.
This is a huge blow for the Yankees, who expected Severino, 26, to play a big part in them going on a deep October run. New York had already announced that LHP James Paxton will miss approximately the first two months of the season after undergoing surgery on his back. Additionally, the Yankees are also without RHP Domingo German for the first 63 games of the 2020 season due to a domestic violence suspension. All of this meant that Severino’s presence on the rotation was even more paramount than usual.
With Severino out, this opens up another two spots in the Yankees’ immediate rotation. As of right now, the rotation will feature: RHP Gerrit Cole, RHP Masahiro Tanaka, and LHP J.A. Happ.
After signing a 4-year $40M extension last February, Severino has had problems staying healthy. 2020 was supposed to be Severino’s return to his old-self after a 2019 filled with injuries and setbacks. However, almost exactly a year after he went down with a shoulder injury, he’s back to square one and will now have an extra year-and-a-half long rehab in hopes of returning to his AL Cy Young finalist form.
Severino could become a free agent after the 2022 season, meaning that there’s a possibility he could end up pitching for the Yankees in only one year of the four on his extension. It’s tough to predict the future of Severino, especially after the reconstruction of his UCL. And since many teams immediately put inning restrictions to pitchers who return from the surgery, it could take a while before we ever see Severino back in full force and it’s not guaranteed he’ll even be pitching for the Yankees then.
New York does have a team option for 2023 worth $15M, but if the Yankees decide to purchase that option it would depend, of course, on how effectively Severino bounces back post-surgery.
Bottom Line: Severino, like any pitcher who undergoes Tommy John surgery has a future up in the air. Fans can be optimistic considering most great pitchers (which Sevi was cetainly showing the signs of becoming and developing into even more) typically recovers back into All-Stars.
The Yankees have a generous amount of young arms waiting for their opportunity. Pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, who had Tommy John surgery of his own in 2018, and Jonathan Loaisiga are the safe bets to take on the four and five spots in the rotation come Opening Day.
In 2017, Montgomery’s rookie year, he was very solid, pitching to a 3.88 ERA in 29 starts. He only threw 27.1 innings in 2018 before requiring Tommy John, which he took more than a year to recover from. He came back late in 2019, but appeared in just four innings.
Montgomery, 27, is a pitcher that doesn’t overwhelm hitters with his velocity. He relies on location and getting ground balls, throwing his sinker and curveball 24.5% and 26.1% of the time, respectively, in 2017.
An opposite of Montgomery, Loaisiga is a pitcher who uses velocity and a power curveball to get hitters out. The Yankees have utilized Loaisiga, 25, as a spot starter, opener, and long reliever since 2018. He has yet to find his footing with the big club, but it could be due to the constant up-and-down he’s experienced between the minors and majors.
The Yankees are very high on him and it’s mainly due to his velocity and spin rate. His fastball velocity ranked in the 95th percentile (96.8mph) and his spin rate on both his breaking ball and fastball are above the 84th percentile.
A pair of Clarke Schmidt power-curveballs pic.twitter.com/vGVxZOAqt1
— Lucas Apostoleris (@DBITLefty) February 27, 2020
Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt, who have impressed early this spring, are some young options the Yankees have. Garcia is already on the 40-man so he could be the first of the two to come up this season, but both will likely start in the minors with options remaining.
Between three minor league levels last season, Garcia, 20, had a 13.3 K/9 ratio. On Garcia’s first outing this spring, he pitched two innings and allowed two hits, one of them a home run by Johan Camargo of the Braves. A big positive from that outing was Garcia striking out Ronald Acuña, Marcell Ozuna and Travis d’Arnaud looking, three of the Atlanta’s best hitters. According to Fangraphs’ “THE BOARD“, Garcia is the 42nd ranked prospect in all of baseball.
Schmidt, the Yankees’ 2017 first-round selection, was drafted just 40 days after he had Tommy John surgery. That has limited his playing time in the minors, forcing him to pitch in just 114 professional innings. But even though he lacks the professional experience, Schmidt, 24, has opened some eyes in his two spring outings.
Michael King, Chad Bettis and Nick Tropeano are other more experienced options for the Yankees. King is already on the 40-man roster, while Bettis and Tropeano would require a move to be added to the roster.
Bottom Line: There’s a lot of potential among New York’s young depth, but a lot of ? marks as well and a severe lack of proven big league pitchers.
There’s no such thing as enough pitching. Even with all the depth New York has, what if any of the internal options goes down just like Severino or Paxton? The Yankees would be playing a dangerous game if they don’t add more arms to their pitching depth, which is young and inexperienced. New York will likely enter the season with the pitching staff they currently have in place, but here are the names they could pursue before the trade deadline. The more logical addition would be a rental, someone who wouldn’t be a long-term investment that potentially blocks some of the young arms waiting to come up.
The free agent class is another opportunity for the Yankees to bolster their rotation. Though this won’t help New York in 2020, it can be a way for them to acquire a stronger replacement for Severino that might not be available midseason, without giving up prospects, and provide security for if Sevi doesn’t come back to form.
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