NFL Scouting Report: QB Trey Lance (N. Dakota St.)

PSO’s original Scouting Reports strive to be uniquely valuable in evaluating a player’s future outlook by focusing on the four main subjects that summarize a player’s likelihood of succeeding at the next level including: Natural Physical Tools, College Game Film, proven Production, and overall Risk that each individual player presents to a team drafting him. For a full breakdown of PSO’s Scouting Reports, click here.

Bio

Pos: QB

Hometown: Marshall, MN

School: North Dakota State

Class: Redshirt Sophomore

DOB: 5/9/2000 (20)

Height: 6’3″ (67%) | Weight: 224 lbs (60%)

Hands: 9.13” (16%) | Arms: 31.5” (30%)

Bench: N/A | 40 Time: N/A

Interesting Facts

28 PASS TDs, 0 INTs in 2019 (14 RUSH TDs — 42 total)
1st freshman to win Walter Payton Award (best FCS player)
Jerry Rice Award, MVFC POY, undefeated FCS Champion, FCSCG MOP (2019)
Single-season NCAA record of 287 ATT without an INT
Opted out of 2020 season after 1 game (10/3 vs. C. Arkansas)

Physical Tools

Pros

Terrific frame — 6’3″, 224 lbs (67th, 60th %tile)
Incredibly strong, quick runner
Twitchy and elusive in space
Impressive raw arm strength
Sturdy lower-half to drive through defenders
Powerful upper-body displayed by ferocious stiff arms

Cons

Relatively small hands (9.13″ — 16th %tile)
Did not run at his Pro Day

Grade: A+

Game Film

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aenRf5qn7bc

Pros

Outstanding arm strength — consistent velocity and depth to make any throw
Bruising runner that initiates contact and fights for extra yards
Shows an ability to work through reads
Experience in a variety of alignments — gun, pistol, under center
Solid decision-making tendencies
Quality movement within the pocket, dangerous outside of structure
Flashes of anticipation and timing
Essentially the best player on the field every week

Cons

Erratic tight-window and touch accuracy
Can be too quick to take off and run
Footwork can certainly be cleaned up
Scheme created lots of free-running targets and was typically very well-protected

Grade: A-

Production

Pros

Walter Payton & Jerry Rice Awards, MVFC POY, 17-0 record, FCS Championship
Career 30:1 PASS TD to INT ratio (28:0 in 2019)
287 PASS ATT without an INT set a single-season NCAA record
1,100 RUSH YDs, 14 RUSH TDs — 42 total TDs, 1 single TO in 2019 (lost fumble)
Completed 67% of ATTs for nearly 10 YPA (72% adjusted)
Outstanding PFF passing (88.7) and deep (93.0) grades
85% completion rate on throws within 10 yards (69/81)
10 TDs on throws of 20+ yards (17/44)
Pushes the ball downfield — 11.5 average target depth

Cons

17 total starts at a lower level of competition (D1-AA/FCS)
Lone 2020 performance was rocky (15/30, 149 YDS, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 1 FMB)
67.7 PFF grade vs. pressure is concerning
Just 44% of throws past LOS deemed “catchable”

Grade: A-

Risk

Pros

Outstanding size/athleticism for the position & play style
Historic production in his lone season as starter
Undefeated national champion
Exceptional arm strength with flashes of pinpoint accuracy
Explosive, powerful rushing threat
Quality pocket awareness, decision-making
Shows great confidence and competitiveness
Will only turn 21 years old in May

Cons

Relatively small sample size (17 starts) against lesser competition
Concerning struggles when pressured (67.7 grade)
Supported by a dominant supporting cast and program
Worst % of “catchable” throws among top QBs
Wasn’t faced with many tight-window opportunities

Grade: B

Overall

One of the more difficult QB projections due to a small sample size, competition, and historic production as a freshman, Trey Lance might have both the highest ceiling and the lowest floor of this year’s top QB prospects. Absolutely dominating the FCS (D1-AA) level as a redshirt freshman, Lance led the undefeated Bison to their third consecutive title with a dramatic defeat of James Madison — the lone school to interrupt NDSU’s decade of dominance.

In addition to some ridiculous stats during his season at the helm, Lance consistently showed off a big arm, dangerous legs, and a proclivity for contact. His raw ability flashed time and time again, but as the season progressed, he grew more comfortable and confident reading the defense in front of him, taking what’s given, and trusting the scheme. While he’s clearly got the arm strength to sling it with the best, his consistent struggles with accuracy are cause for concern.

Due in part to unrefined feet within the pocket, there’s plenty of work to be done before starting on Sundays — like most, if not all young QBs. He ran roughshod over FCS competition, but the leap in talent and complexity to the NFL may be pretty jarring at first. Give him some time to adjust and build upon those natural gifts under a competent QB-friendly staff, however, and there’s no telling where his ceiling really may end up.

Pro Comp: QB Cam Newton (New England Patriots)

Projected Round: Top-10 Pick

Prime Destinations: SF, ATL, CAR, DEN, NE, WFT, CHI

OVERALL Grade: A-