MLB
Prime Trade Destinations for 3B Nolan Arenado (COL)
These teams are best positioned for a potential Nolan Arenado blockbuster
Full Sports
Trade rumors have surrounded Nolan Arenado since the Winter Meetings, but tensions have escalated recently between the star third-baseman and the Colorado Rockies. “There’s a lot of disrespect from people there that I don’t want to be a part of,” Arenado said in an exchange with Thomas Harding of MLB.com. “You can quote that.”
Arenado has voiced his displeasure with how the Rockies’ front office have dealt with what seemed like the beginning of a successful spell for Colorado. Following a 91-game winning season in 2018, the Rockies extended Arenado to an 8-year/$260M deal only to lose 91 games in 2019. As a result, following a September game, Arenado told the media that the 2019 season felt like a “rebuild”. More recently, Jeff Passan (ESPN) reported Arenado felt frustrated with how the team has handled the offseason.
One big caveat in all of this is Arenado’s opt-out clause after the 2021 season. The team getting Arenado would want their offer to match the potential of getting Nolan for only two years instead of seven, unless Arenado agrees to waive his opt-out clause in exchange for an extra year or more money in his contract.
Jon Morosi of MLB.com looks at the Cardinals as the favorites to land Arenado and has reported that the Cardinals and Rockies have already started exchanging names in a potential deal. The Cardinals have three prospects on MLB’s Top 100 list, with OF Dylan Carlson as their top young talent, but he’s believed to be off limits. 3B Nolan Gorman and recently acquired LHP Matthew Liberatore are the more likely prospects that could be added in such a deal. Is it possible the Cardinals might’ve traded for Liberatore in preparation for a potential Arenado blockbuster?
Additionally, a player like Matt Carpenter could be included in such a deal as financial help and can become a temporary 3B for Colorado while SS Brendan Rodgers prepares to transition into COL’s long-term 3B as an infield sidekick to SS Trevor Story. What really makes St. Louis a great trade partner for Colorado is STL’s young and ready pitching talent. Pitchers like 23-year-old Génesis Cabrera could be on the move, as well. A young, controllable, major league-ready pitcher is what Colorado should be looking for.
Here’s a look at how STL’s pitching staff is built for the future:
Potential Trade Package (if opt-out is waived):
Cardinals get: 3B Nolan Arenado
Rockies get: LHP Génesis Cabrera (STL #7 prospect per Fangraphs), 3B/1B Matt Carpenter, LHP Matthew Liberator (#3), OF Lane Thomas (#8), 3B Elehuris Montero (#14)
Potential Trade Package (if opt-out is not waived):
Cardinals get: 3B Nolan Arenado
Rockies get: 3B Nolan Gorman (#1), LHP Matthew Liberator (#3), 3B/1B Matt Carpenter
Following Josh Donaldson’s departure, the Braves have an open spot at third base. As of right now, Atlanta has two options: Johan Camargo, who broke out offensively in 2018, but struggled all of last season (.663 OPS), and 22 year-old Austin Riley who proved to be a powerful asset by posting a .563 SLG in the first half of 2019 before injuries and the rookie wall slowed him down. Prospect wise, the Braves have one of the most stacked farm systems in the league, with 5 players in MLB’s Top 100 list. In a potential deal for Arenado, the Rockies might ask for one of the Braves top pitching prospects like Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright.
Potential Trade Package (if opt-out is waived):
Braves get: 3B Nolan Arenado
Rockies get: RHP Kyle Wright (ATL #4 prospect per Fangraphs), 3B Johan Camargo, RHP Jassel De La Cruz (#12), & OF Michael Harris (#13)
Potential Trade Package (if opt-out is not waived):
Braves get: 3B Nolan Arenado
Rockies get: RHP Kyle Wright, 3B Johan Camargo, OF Michael Harris
The Texas Rangers are in a tough and interesting position. They’re moving into a new ballpark in 2020, but missed out on Anthony Rendon and Nicholas Castellanos, as they look to make a run for the AL Wild Card. The money is not a problem for the Rangers. In fact, of all the teams in prime position for Arenado, the Rangers could offer to eat the most money. This became clear when GM John Daniels reportedly offered Rendon a contract in “the same stratosphere” as the deal he signed with the Angels (7y/$245M).
The only issue the Rangers have is their limited prospect pool— with only two players in MLB’s pipeline top 100, 3B Josh Jung (55) and C Sam Huff (73). Neither is MLB-ready yet, whereas the Braves, Cardinals, and Yankees can offer premium prospects ready to make the leap into the big leagues this season.
So the Rangers would have to empty their farm for a player like Arenado. The Rockies wouldn’t get the big time prospects they might want, but they might be able to shed some salary at other positions, in addition to getting the Rangers to eat 100% of Arenado’s contract.
Potential Trade Package (if opt-out is waived or not):
Rangers get: 3B Nolan Arenado, RP Bryan Shaw (1y/$9M left w/ $9M team option/$2M buyout for 2021)
Rockies get: 3B Josh Jung (2019 8th Ovr pick), SP Kolby Allard, RHP Hans Crouse (TEX #9 prospect per Fangraphs), OF Bayron Lora (16 y/o top international prospect)
Braves +400
Cubs/Dodgers +500
Rangers +600
Astros/Cardinals/Nationals +700
Phillies +1000 pic.twitter.com/phqp9hivdA— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) January 29, 2020
The Yankees are the favorites to land Nolan Arenado before Opening Day (according to BetOnline). Their current plan is to start 2019 breakout player Gio Urshela at 3B with Miguel Andujar, the 2018 AL ROY runner-up, possibly taking on a DH/Utility role after an injury-plagued season. If any trade were to happen between Colorado and New York, Andujar would likely be part of the package, with Urshela taking on an infield/utility role behind Arenado.
Highly touted pitching prospect Deivi Garcia is another player that could be included in this potential blockbuster. Based on Brian Cashman’s recent unwillingness to part ways with some of his top prospects, it is hard to see Garcia included in a deal where Arenado only has 2 years of team control left. Assurances will be needed that Arenado wants to be wearing Pinstripes for a while to part with a high-ceiling player like Garcia.
OF Estevan Florial entered 2019 as the Yankees #1 prospect but has since been slowed down by injuries and bad performances in the lower minor league levels. He’s still a player with much promise, but doesn’t have the value he had one year ago. However, with Jasson Dominguez presence, Florial is now more expendable.
Potential Trade Package (if opt-out is waived or not):
Yankees get: 3B Nolan Arenado
Rockies get: 3B Miguel Andujar, SP Deivi Garcia (NYY #2 prospect per 2019 Fangraphs), OF Estevan Florial (#3), SP Michael King (#37)
One of the biggest blockbuster trades imaginable has been discussed— an All-Star for All-Star swap. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported that the Cubs and Rockies have considered a potential trade that would send 3B Kris Bryant to Colorado in exchange for Nolan Arenado.
In reality, it is very unlikely a deal of this magnitude actually occurs, but in the current situations both of these players are with their respective franchises (Arenado dealing with his aforementioned front office tensions & Bryant losing his grievance against the Cubs) it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibilities that Rockies’ GM Jeff Bridich and Cubs’ Pres. Of Baseball Operations, Theo Epstein, decide to pull the trigger and hit the retool button around a different star 3B, instead of rebuilding and tearing it down.
Potential Trade Package:
Cubs get: 3B Nolan Arenado, 1B/IF Ryan McMahon, RP Carlos Estevez
Rockies get: 3B Kris Bryant, C Victor Caratini
Milwaukee Brewers: With no clear option at third base, it feels like the Brewers should be all-in and add another superstar to the mix and pair him with Christian Yelich. The question is if Milwaukee is willing to take on that massive contract. (MIL Future Depth Chart)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Probably the most unlikely landing spot out of any teams in this list. The Rockies will try and avoid trading within the division, but if there’s a team with an abundance of top talent to offer and looking to make a big splash, it’s the Dodgers. (LAD Future Depth Chart)
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