PSO Scouting Report: G/F Aaron Nesmith

PSO’s original Scouting Reports strive to be uniquely valuable in evaluating a player’s future outlook by focusing on the four main subjects that summarize a player’s likelihood of succeeding at the next level including: Natural Athleticism, developed NBA-Caliber Skills, proven Production, and overall Risk that each individual player presents to a team drafting him. For a full breakdown of PSO’s Scouting Reports, click here.

Bio

Pos: SF

Hometown: Charleston, South Carolina

Team: Vanderbilt

Class: Sophomore

DOB (Age): 10/16/99 (Age 21)

Height: 6’6″

Weight: 213 lbs.

Facts to Know

5th in the NCAA in PPG, averaging the most points by a Vanderbilt player since ’68-’69 (Tom Hagan)
Began playing varsity basketball in 8th grade at the Porter-Gaud School in South Carolina
Finished 10th in the SEC with 60 3-pointers made, doing so in only 14 games played

Athleticism

Pros

Good frame and wingspan; necessary for a player who defends larger and more athletic wings
Has the potential to add more strength and be a stronger-end Forward
Moves around the floor well & can pick up the pace in transition
Good body control through contact, able to shoot through fouls giving himself chances for 3/4 point plays; good balance

Cons

Does not move very quickly vertically or laterally making him a project on the defensive end
Lacks quick first step which limits him offensively and makes him predictable when driving
Could be a player that physically struggles to adjust to “small-ball” in the NBA
Slow on defense; not a question of effort, just ability against larger or quicker players
Significantly less athletic with the ball in his hand, rarely blows by defenders

Grade: B-

NBA Skills

Pros

Incredible shooter from behind the arc; catch and shoot, off the dribble, shooting while moving all in his bag
Great shot mechanics and consistency which leads to quick releases & a game that could thrive through his 30’s
Loves to move around and find open spaces, always keeps the defense guessing; plays a decoy well
Knows his role very well, plays within himself at all times; can become 3s only type player if needed
Solid team defender with knowledge of defensive schemes, should be able to make an impact on that end

Cons

For all of his shooting skill, creating his own shot is an issue; does not currently have the footwork/moves
Not a great scorer inside the paint, needs to get better at finishing around the rim
Handle is simple and not as tight as it should be for a small forward; not a great iso threat for a natural scorer
Not a great passer from an accuracy standpoint, most reads are basic or obvious which leaves a hole in his game

Grade: B

Production

Pros

Averaged 23 PPG showing his elite scoring ability
Unreal 3P% (52%) on over 8 attempts per game
41% projected NBA 3-point percentage; would have been top-20 in the NBA last season
Consistently 83% from the FT line, making him a 4-point play threat
Great advanced stats, PER: 29.0, Offensive Rating: 127.8, 9.3 offensive box +/-; does little things well
Low foul numbers (2.8 pg) should not be an issue in the league
Solid rebound numbers for someone who spends so much time around the perimeter
1.4 SPG exemplifies his active hands and heads-up defensive awareness

Cons

Very low assist numbers; Will need to elevate these to expand game
Poor defensive rating (106.8) and below average overall advanced defensive metrics
Only 14-game sample size as a Sophomore due to injury; Freshman year was very inconsistent

Grade: A-

Risk

Pros

Has the type of shooting prowess that every NBA team wants in this era and will never go away
Already knows his role very well which will make him a solid fit in the league
Has the frame to develop on weaknesses and become a legitimate wing defender
Constant threat to score; defenses have to pay attention to him giving teammates more opportunities
Despite lack of athleticism does not take plays off and effort is not in question

Cons

Defensive concerns are legitimate, elite athletes should have no problem getting by him
Lack of shot creation ability makes him very one-dimensional on the offensive end
Will need to improve passing because closeouts will come faster in the NBA
Stress fracture in his right foot shortened final season at Vanderbilt

Grade: B

Overall

There is no denying that the 3-point shot is now the focal point of NBA offenses. Teams are always looking for a chance to add a 3-point specialist, and Aaron Nesmith fits the build of the modern long-range sniper. The combination of his production and efficiency from behind the arc will make him desirable for many teams looking to fill that hole. What makes Nesmith’s shooting so valuable is the variety of ways he beats teams from behind the arc. He has no issue running off screens and taking 3s right when the ball touches his hands, something Duncan Robinson did consistently for the Miami Heat during their incredible playoff run.

Nesmith also brings value by knowing his role and where to be on the court at all times. He was the main scorer at Vanderbilt, but will play much more of a supporting role in the NBA. He would flourish with a dynamic ball-dominant back court finding him around the arc. He is currently one-dimensional on offense as a pure shooter and his defense leaves a lot to be desired, but that is a critique of many shooters when they enter the league. Nesmith’s value will only rise as the three ball continues to dominate the league. If his defense can reach its potential throughout the years, he will be a key two-way contributor in the NBA for a long time.

Pro Comp: Terrence Ross

Projected Round/Pick: Mid-1st Rd

Prime Destinations: SAS (#11), NOP (#13), BOS (#14)

OVERALL Grade: B