Worth the Wager: $100K Parlay Bet for NFL on Christmas 2024

As the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers prepare to face off on NFL Christmas, check out why this one bet is worth the wager.

Disclaimer: Never bet above what you can afford to lose. For some people that’s $100K, for others that’s $1. Let’s explore why we have a good chance to double whatever that number is today instead of losing it.

The NFL’s Christmas Day 2024 slate features a marquee matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers as well as the Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans, two games loaded with intrigue and high-stakes implications. The Chiefs, led by their talented offense and fierce defense, face a Steelers team known for its defensive prowess and physical play style. Both teams are vying for playoff positioning, making this clash one of the most anticipated matchups of the holiday season.

This game is more than just a battle between two iconic franchises—it’s a prime betting opportunity that has caught the attention of fans and analysts alike. For those looking to put some action on this matchup, all eyes are on key factors like Kansas City’s offensive efficiency, the return of George Pickens, and Pittsburgh’s ability to disrupt opposing game plans.

For player prop enthusiasts, Hollywood Brown is a name to watch, with Patrick Mahomes looking to build rapport in their second game together. Given his speed and reliability in the passing game, Brown could be a critical factor in how the game unfolds. The Chiefs and Steelers have a storied history of delivering close, competitive games, and this year’s holiday matchup is no exception. With playoff implications, standout performances, and big wagers in play, this game promises to be a Christmas Day spectacle for fans and bettors alike.

Scroll down to see why this parlay bet with 2 legs is worth the wager on NFL Christmas in Week 17:

1. Hollywood Brown OVER 3.5 REC

2. Kansas City Chiefs +11.5

FACTS & TRENDS

Hollywood Brown had 5 REC on 8 targets during his Chiefs debut last week
Brown played in only 20 snaps last week (27%) which will likely increase as he recovers more (90%+ snaps last year)

Brown o3.5 REC has hit in 32 of his last 43 games from 2021-24 (75%)
Chiefs +11.5 has hit in 28 of their last 28 games (100%) since Week 6 of 2023
Steelers -11.5 has hit in only 1 of their 7 games (14%) as an underdog in 2024 (won 37-15 vs. NYJ)

Via Pro Football Reference

WHY IT HITS

$100K PARLAY FOR NFL CHRISTMAS IN WEEK 17 (-105):

LEG #1: Hollywood Brown o3.5 REC (-110)
LEG #2: Chiefs +11.5 (-850)

1st Reason: This could be the last game Mahomes & Hollywood play together before the Playoffs so they’ll look to build a stronger rapport

2nd Reason: Hollywood got 8 targets in only 20 snaps last week. His snaps will surely increase in his 2nd game back which means his targets likely will as well

3rd Reason: Chiefs and Steelers rarely blow anyone out so +7.5 should be enough value as a one-score game is highly likely in this spot, but +11.5 barely decreased the odds and provides a little safety net for any backdoor covers

COUNTERPOINT

Every bet has a chance of not hitting but based on the value (-105 odds), this one is worth the wager. However, if it doesn’t hit, it’ll most likely be because of these reasons:

Hollywood’s Injury Concerns: Hollywood Brown could get injured again. He’s dealt with a variety of injuries which isn’t completely unexpected with his frame. If he misses any time in this game, that could significantly impact his opportunity to make 4 receptions or more. Although Xavier Worthy missed some time last game and still finished with 7 REC on 11 TGTs.

Chiefs Get Conservative: With two games left and only one win needed to secure the No.1 seed, the Chiefs could get ultra conservative on Christmas without wanting to reveal the best of their playbook against a potential foe they’ll face in a few weeks with much more on the line. If that’s the case, they might not get Hollywood Brown the touches that he’d warrant if this was a Postseason matchup.

No Chris Jones: Chris Jones is the Chiefs’ defensive leader and their only dominant force that consistently creates havoc in the backfield and forces the opposing QB to make poor decisions. With him not suiting up, that could give Russell Wilson ample amount of time to extend drives and give Najee Harris clear running lanes that allows them to run up the clock which would lead to fewer opportunities for Brown and the offense, and also help the Steelers take a lead beyond just 11 points.