Worth the Wager: $100K Bet for NFL Saturday in Week 16

As the Baltimore Ravens face off against their rival Pittsburgh Steelers and reigning 2x Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs take on the AFC South winner Houston Texans on Saturday December 21st, 2024, check out why this one bet is worth the wager.

Disclaimer: Never bet above what you can afford to lose. For some people that’s $100K, for others that’s $1. Let’s explore why we have a good chance to double whatever that number is today instead of losing it.

The upcoming Week 16 NFL matchups feature two pivotal games on Saturday with significant playoff implications. In the AFC North, the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) are set to face the Baltimore Ravens (9-5) in a rivalry that has historically been fiercely competitive. Their previous encounter earlier this season resulted in a narrow 18-16 victory for the Steelers, with kicker Chris Boswell playing a key role.

This game is crucial for both teams as they battle for divisional supremacy and playoff positioning. The Steelers’ defense, known for their blitzing brilliance and prominent pass rush led by TJ Watt, will face a colossal challenge against the reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, who has dominated again this season. Additionally, the Ravens’ improved rushing attack could put additional pressure on Pittsburgh’s front seven.

Meanwhile, the Houston Texans host the Kansas City Chiefs in a matchup spotlighting the presence of WR1 Nico Collins. Collins has been one of the league’s top wide receivers this season, recording over 65 receiving yards in 78% of his games despite a hamstring injury sidelining him for five games.

With the Chiefs’ defense ranking among the best in limiting home run plays, Collins’ consistent performance on Saturday will be critical for the Texans’ offensive success. With Houston’s pass rush looking to get after a potentially wounded Patrick Mahomes, their offensive game plan should be centered around airing it out early. These games not only shape playoff scenarios but also highlight key trends and bets that are poised to produce a profit.

Scroll down to see why this parlay bet that includes 3 legs: 1. Steelers +14, 2. PIT vs. BAL u57.5 PTS, and 3. Nico Collins o64.5 REC YDS (+107) is worth the wager on NFL Saturday in Week 16.

FACTS & TRENDS

Nico Collins 2024 game logs Via Pro Football Reference

Nico Collins has hit over 65+ REC YDS in 7/9 games (78%) this season
Ravens vs. Steelers has hit u57 PTS in 13 of their last 13 matchups (100%) including all 7 with Lamar Jackson
PIT +14 has hit in 20/21 games (95%) vs. Baltimore over the last 10 years;

^Only 1 being a meaningless final game in 2019 with Devlin Hodges starting at QB for PIT

PIT +14 has hit in all 7 games (100%) vs. Lamar Jackson in his career

WHY IT HITS

$100K PARLAY FOR NFL SATURDAY IN WEEK 16 (+107):

LEG #1: Pittsburgh Steelers +14 (-275)
LEG #2: Steelers vs. Ravens u57.5 PTS (-750)
LEG #3: Nico Collins o64.5 REC YDS (-300)

1st Reason: Steelers and Ravens always play close games and Mike Tomlin never loses to Lamar Jackson by a significant margin

2nd Reason: AFC North games are rarely high-scoring and without George Pickens playing, it’s highly unlikely to be a shootout

3rd Reason: Chiefs allow the opposing WR1 to get their yards and Nico Collins has been very productive when healthy

COUNTERPOINT

Every bet has a chance of not hitting but based on the value (+107 odds), this one is worth the wager. However, if it doesn’t hit, it’ll most likely be because of these reasons:

Ravens’ Offensive Excellence: Baltimore’s offense has been very effective with the reigning MVP Lamar Jackson consistently delivering with both his arm and his legs. His ability to exploit defensive weaknesses while Derrick Henry bullies defenders could lead to a substantial lead over Pittsburgh. HC John Harbaugh will certainly look to take advantage of DeShon Elliott and Donte Jackson‘s absence on Saturday.

Primetime Home Game for Baltimore: It’s hard to bet against Baltimore at the Bank under the bright lights. The Ravens could look to make a statement with George Pickens out and light up the scoreboard against a Steelers defense that looked very vulnerable against Philly last week.

Chiefs’ Defensive Adjustments: Kansas City’s defense under DC Steve Spagnuolo may focus on limiting Collins’ impact, especially given his recent performances. Strategic coverage and pressure could restrict his yardage with one of the best CB’s in the NFL, Trent McDuffie looking to lock him up.