NFL
A Quarterback Revolution in the NFL
From Tom Brady to Patrick Mahomes, let's take a look at the revolution going on behind center in the NFL
NFL.com
For some years now, it hasn’t been difficult to say who the NFL’s best quarterback was. The seemingly ageless (43, now) Tom Brady has had the numbers and the success to make any debate pointless. With some of his passing targets at the Patriots moving to other teams for big paydays, and others retiring, TB12 had always kept on trucking, setting records as he has gone on. However, the new generation is quickly taking over the conversation and could be leading to a whole new revolution in the NFL.
Since his move south to Tampa Bay, Tom Brady hasn’t seemingly lost much of the mastery that allowed him to keep the Super Bowl rings flowing in during his time at Foxboro. Reunited with his temporarily-retired tight end Rob Gronkowski, there is some suggestion that Mr. 500 could even lift the Bucs to an unlikely championship win this season. However, the question of whether he is the best signal-caller in the league is now very much up for debate.
There is, it has to be said, something of a split in the league between teams led by experienced QBs who have been playing the position for a decade or more, and those who are trusting their futures to younger players. As well as Tampa Bay, other teams who are putting their faith in what’s worked before are New Orleans (with Drew Brees), Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers), Pittsburgh (Ben Roethlisberger) and, for the moment, Miami (who have drafted Tua Tagovailoa but are sitting him for the moment to give him the chance to learn under Ryan “Fitzmagic” Fitzpatrick).
If you were an NFL GM with unlimited funds and the chance to sign any player you want, however, you have to answer one key question: would you pick Brady, safe in the knowledge of what he gives you, or would you look to Kansas City for your QB? The Chiefs finally broke a fifty-year championship drought this year, due in no small part to the remarkable skill set of Patrick Mahomes.
In his first year as a starter in the league, the KC quarterback threw 50 touchdown passes and surpassed 5,000 yards passing; only Peyton Manning has ever done that before. Those numbers came down last year, but Mahomes missed two games and then went on to add a Super Bowl MVP performance. Throughout his career so far he has managed to keep an average of around eight yards per passing attempt, and he’s incredibly trustworthy with more than four times as many touchdown tosses as interceptions. Brady, across a storied 21-year career, has three touchdowns for every pick.
Mahomes is also useful when he takes to his feet, good for roughly five yards average per rushing attempt. The Texas Tech product is not an equal pass/rush threat, like some of the younger generation, but he is an athletic quarterback who also has the arm to put up huge passing numbers. That’s a nightmare for defensive coordinators who need to find a way to defend against a cannon-armed passer without giving up endless first downs when he scrambles.
Historically, there have been very few quarterbacks who offer a threat on the run. However, when you hear names like Kordell Stewart, Michael Vick and more recently Tim Tebow, there is always a concern that a dual-threat QB will be more like a running back who can throw a little. Mahomes is a definite pass-first triggerman – he may one day be talked about as one of the best ever – and he can run, too. He’s joined in this regard by Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, all of whom are probably better rushers than Mahomes, though they’re yet to hold a candle to him in terms of airing the ball out.
It’s easy to look at the crew of adept running quarterbacks coming through at the moment, and be a little bit skeptical that it’s anything new. After all, some of the most decorated passers in NFL history have been useful on the ground; Cam Newton won a MVP in the 2010s, Michael Vick shined in the 2000s, Steve Young springs to mind from the 1990s, while going further back one could point to Fran Tarkenton. The difference is that now, a majority of signal-callers coming out of college can do both. More and more NFL teams are playing a spread offense that favors athletic quarterbacks, and it shows.
Although neither Tom Brady or Drew Brees – both now in their 40s – are quite as immobile as a 1980s prototype like Joe Montana, the older generation in the position are definitely pocket passers. Okay, so this trend is bucked somewhat by Ryan Fitzpatrick, who led the Dolphins in rushing last season and could well do likewise this time out. But then, Fitzpatrick is as likely to throw a rash interception as a laser-guided touchdown pass. Dolphins coach Brian Flores is clearly hoping Tagovailoa learns some of Fitzmagic’s spontaneity while leaving out the propensity to throw blindly into traffic.
If you want some better proof of the sea change in quarterback play, it’s worth looking at the top Super Bowl contenders for this season. As you’ll see from the likes of NFL-Online-Betting.com the Chiefs are clear favorites to repeat last season’s glory, while their closest competitors are Baltimore (with Jackson under center), then Seattle (Russell Wilson, another passer who can run) and then the Green Bay Packers with Aaron Rodgers, who is 36, and could honestly have been the blueprint on which Mahomes was built. The most realistic threat to the speedy cohort comes from the Bucs, who are dark horses for a championship and perhaps the most likely side to be guided to the title by a pocket passer.
With NFL single-season records and now a Super Bowl ring to his name, Mahomes is increasingly becoming a veteran. Jackson, Watson, Kyler Murray and the likes of Daniel Jones in New York are either established or establishing themselves in the league as the same kind of passers. Perhaps the best test of whether we’re in a new age is to look at who is coming through; the rookies and the college prospects. What can we learn from the new breed?
Well, #1 draft pick Joe Burrow has gone straight into the Bengals’ starting lineup and on his debut ran for 43 yards and a touchdown. Playing behind Cincy’s porous offensive line, it’s going to be hard to gauge whether he can play as a dual threat in the NFL, but his legs are certainly there if he needs them. Justin Herbert, selected by the Chargers, also notched a touchdown on his debut and has chained together 300-yard passing games on his first three starts as an injury to Tyrod Taylor (another speedy guy!) threw him into the spotlight.
We’re yet to see anything in the NFL from Crimson Tide product Tagovailoa, who some believe to be the best of this season’s rookie crop, but at college he was notably an exceptional all-around QB, accurate on both quick hits and deep passes, and also capable of galloping 44 yards for a touchdown (which, it later emerged, he had done while carrying an injury). The Hawaiian passer did benefit from a great corps of receivers while at college, something that he arguably lacks at present in the Florida panhandle.
Coming into the NFL next season, there is Trevor Lawrence, who will bring perhaps the most exciting set of skills ever seen from a rookie prospect to whoever tanks hard enough to select him (probably the Jets). In 15 games last season at Clemson, he ran 103 times for 563 yards and nine touchdowns. Aligning this to a completion percentage of 65% (268/407), and 36 touchdowns against just eight interceptions, Lawrence certainly fits the modern prototype. So, too, does Justin Fields, who is tearing it up at Ohio State and will be a top-ten draft selection for one lucky club.
Brandon Aiyuk's wild leap and a crazy shootout in Texas headline the most entertaining highlights from NFL Week 4 ⬇️ https://t.co/rKrpWE5KCi
— Pro Sports Outlook (@PSO_Sports) October 6, 2020
The NFL is a league which sees innovative trends arrive every once in a while, but one thing it isn’t is a league which embraces fads. Once upon a time, wide receivers were either wiry pace guys or sturdy slot options. Randy Moss broke that fashion by combining size, vertical leaping ability, and his own pace in one premium package, and though he retired in 2013, every team still covets a receiver like him. Most teams also now have at least one receiver or RB who played as quarterback in college or high school, and have trick plays in their armory specifically to harness this skill as we saw in the Cleveland-Dallas matchup in Week 4.
There will undoubtedly be quarterbacks of the future who prefer to stand in against the pass rush and rely on a strong pocket. However, these players are likely to be referred to as “throwback” QBs, reminiscent of times when all passers were more like Brady and Brees. Having a quarterback with the athleticism to keep the defense guessing – and an arm like a cannon – is going to revolutionize playbooks across the league. Brady may yet play to the age of 45 and beyond, but Mahomes and passers like him are the future in this league.
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