MLB
Is 2020 Becoming the Year to Tank?
With a season full of unique circumstances this year, more teams than usual might approach 2020 as the prime opportunity to tank.
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Tanking has slowly been gaining more popularity over the past few years. ‘Tanking‘ is the term given to the tear down of a team with hopes of building the franchise back up with good draft picks and international signings that come from losing up front. It sounds good in theory… Essentially forfeit a couple of seasons; gain some top-5 draft picks; trade away the team’s best players for a larger quantity of young, future assets; and in a few years be back in contention with young players and an abundance of trade assets ready to be dealt for that final piece to get over the hump.
Fans have become aware of tanking and are very critical of their local teams surrendering seasons. Even commissioner Rob Manfred has considered adding more postseason teams with hopes of reducing the amounts of teams that are motivated to tank. It is not good for the league to have almost half of the league not trying their best to contend.
Major League Baseball is a league of copycats. After the Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, and the Chicago Cubs built World Series winning teams after perennial last place seasons, many teams have followed suit in trying to build a championship team from the ground up.
In 2019, 8 teams entered the season intending to tank (Standings via Baseball Reference)Teams like the Detroit Tigers, Pittsburgh Pirates, and the Baltimore Orioles are some recent examples of teams that were contenders in the early-to-mid 2010s but have since tore it down and are trying to build it back up. 2020 presents a great opportunity for teams debating whether to hit the restart button or not. The circumstances this year are unique, and some teams might decide to take advantage of these rare conditions. For those teams without a realistic chance of winning the Championship, here are some factors to take into consideration when deciding whether to approach this season going all-in or prioritizing the best chance at future success.
This is one of the deepest draft classes we have ever seen. A lot of potential MLB players are going to be shut out of this draft.
— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) March 27, 2020
This is a prime opportunity for teams that were looking at the next two amateur drafts as potential franchise-altering drafts. The 2020 draft could have as few as five rounds this year. This means that the 2021 draft could potentially be stacked with talent that is not selected this year.
Baseball, unlike other sports, produces more big-league talent in the later rounds than any other sport. It is, by far, the longest draft among the major U.S. sport leagues, stretching as far as 40 rounds. Players like Kevin Kiermaier, Jose Bautista, Andy Petitte, and future HOF Albert Pujols are just some of the names that come to mind when thinking of great major league talent that were drafted in the mid-to-late rounds. And in a draft like this year’s, they would’ve been left out and pushed back to 2021.
A factor that will play a role this year and in next year’s draft is that college and high school players lost their 2020 season. Many amateur players would rather build up their stock a little more, rather than risk it after not playing the 2020 spring season. The NCAA has also granted Division I spring sport athletes an extra year of eligibility likely making even more college players play one more year before declaring for the draft.
It is a difficult time for the players who are not only losing their seasons and delaying their draft year, but will also be earning less in signing bonuses. According to the agreement between the MLB and MLBPA, undrafted players must sign for no more than $20,000 furthering the chances of college and high school players waiting a year or two more before declaring.
The teams on the other hand, will try and get the most out of the ’21 draft which has all the makings of being the most stacked draft of all-time. The Detroit Tigers hold the first overall pick this year, followed by the Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, Miami Marlins, and Toronto Blue Jays. Whoever lands a coveted top-5 pick after this season will be in a prime position to add an abundance of high-caliber young talent.
Chart via Baseball Reference
There is a huge probability that this entire season could be played without fans. And one of the major impacts tanking has on a franchise is attendance, or lack thereof.
The fact that attendance could end up being a non-factor this season regardless of whether a team is winning or losing might prompt owners to give the green light this season to GMs wanting to hit the reset button. Out of the bottom six teams in attendance per game in 2019, five are teams that are still tanking (0 expectations of winning this season): the Marlins, Orioles, Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and the Tigers.
Tanking usually has a direct impact on the team’s attendance numbers and overall profitability. Fans don’t go to the ballpark to see their local team continuously lose games. Following a World Series appearance, the Royals were in the top-10 in attendance/gm in 2015. Same goes for Detroit, who were sixth in attendance/gm in 2013 following their AL Pennant in 2012.
Small market or not; when the team does well, the fans are there to show their support. But if fans are prohibited from attending games this season, low attendance numbers will be a major consequence that a team’s brass won’t have to stress about if they lose consistently in 2020. If anything, fans might agree that if there’s ever a time to lose, it’s 2020.
Major League Baseball considering playing its entire shortened season in Phoenix, at Spring Training complexes, with no fans. https://t.co/rglCBiXWf7
— Reid Wilson (@PoliticsReid) April 7, 2020
The tanking of a 162-game season is not the same as tanking a 100-game season. It just doesn’t have the same effect on the morale of players, fans, and ownership. If there ever is a year to try and forget— 2020 is that year. It will still have the same effect than years past, but it’ll just take less time and be more forgettable.
Let’s take for example the Colorado Rockies. A team that should be in a winning position (according to Nolan Arenado) but likely won’t be very competitive this year with the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and Arizona Diamondbacks all in the same division. It is unlikely contenders like the Rockies that could decide to tank this shortened season and get a high draft position for next year’s stacked amateur draft to then play to win in 2021 and beyond.
If games are eventually played or not, this season will be held to a different standard no matter what happens. Many will add the infamous asterisk next to it due to the conditions the world is in and consequential delayed season.
So any team that is preparing for a 2020 Championship run with dreams of champagne showers and crowded parades might think long and hard about those aspirations with everything going on. No matter how successful or dominant they are this season, their Championship trophy will always come with an infamous asterisk attached to it.
Asterisks aren’t anything new in baseball as young fans see first-hand when looking back at the numerous steroid-era hitting records. Many baseball purists continue to put asterisks next to Mark McGwire and Barry Bond’s record-breaking accomplishments because they used performance-enhancing substances, and these asterisks have prevented plenty of exceptional talent (Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, Schilling, Clemens) from entering the Hall of Fame.
And even this past winter when fans rallied together, trying to force the league to put an official asterisk next to the Houston Astros’ 2017 World Series championship after the whole “codebreaker” scandal. No matter which team wins or tanks, people will say that this season had too many unprecedented factors and didn’t produce a real winner. So not only is the risk of tanking as low as it’s ever been, but the reward of winning is also at its lowest point.
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