By Michael Grammenos, PSO Sports Research Analyst
Oct 03, 2020

Now that sports wagering has become legal and significantly more popular, many people enjoy getting more invested into the games. The best way to be successful making money from sports wagering is by having the right information available to understand the best bets to make. Here are some interesting money trends that showcases some tendencies that have occurred recently and could reveal a valuable investment for NFL Week 4, powered by Trnds Sports. Check out the previous Money Trends that went 32-16 (67%) on the year.

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Game: BAL@WAS (currently at BAL -13)

TREND: WAS after loss on the road

  • ATS: 0-9-0 (0%) since 2018 Week 13
 

Baltimore comes off a loss on primetime where Kansas City got to do everything on offense and Lamar Jackson struggled to find his groove, two rare occurrences for this Ravens team. Going from playing the best team in the league to one of the worst should get Baltimore back on track on both sides of the ball. Future All-Pro rookie EDGE Chase Young is out, providing Lamar Jackson with not only more time in the pocket, but more importantly, more lanes to run through and carve up the rest of DC’s mediocre D. 

Washington hasn’t shown anything on offense this year, ranking 30th in YPG. Ron Rivera is new to the team and playing a veteran coach in John Harbaugh who is looking to get back on track is a tough spot for any team. Minus-14 is a lofty spread for any road opponent, but without fans and due to the close location DC is from Baltimore, this is far from a normal road game. Baltimore’s defense has what it takes to neutralize one of the weakest offenses in the league while its own offense looks to rebound in Week 4. 

Pick: BAL -13

Game: MIN@HOU (currently at MIN +4)

TREND: HOU after away game

  • ATS: 0-8-1 (5.6%) since 2019 Week 1.
 

The biggest mismatch going into this game is Minnesota’s rushing offense (8th) vs. Houston’s rushing defense (32nd). Being able to dominate on the ground is essential in a game with only a four point spread. Running all over an opponent takes control of the clock and helps long drives get established. Justin Jefferson had a coming out party last week and can be fully expected to play a more prominent role in the offense moving forward. Both teams haven’t won a single game this year despite entering the season with playoff expectations. 

This has all the signs of a game that will come down to who has the ball last, which is great for any team that’s +4. Even buying a few points to get it to +7 seems like a near-lock considering the Texans have struggled to play up to expectations after a week of travel. 

Pick: MIN +4

Game: ATL@GB (currently at OU 56.5)

TREND: ATL vs. NFC overs

  • OU: 6-0-0 since 2019 Week 14
 

Two of the top six offenses will be going at in on Monday Night. Green Bay (1st in PPG: 40.7) are expected to get explosive wideout Davante Adams back after missing him last week. Regardless of who’s out there catching the ball, Aaron Rodgers has looked like a hungry dog showing the world just how great he is. He’s making sure no first round pick can alter his career path moving forward. Atlanta on the other hand (6th in PPG: 30.0) is sitting at a disappointing 0-3 and are very close to getting their coach fired. 

The Falcons have the fire power to put up numbers, and their defense has shown week after week that they just can’t get the job done. Aaron Rodgers is going to make light work of that defense, while Atlanta should be able to score at least 25+. The biggest worry here is a complete domination by Green Bay, which is very possible with a team as inconsistent as Atlanta. 

Pick: Over 56.5

Game: PHI@SF (currently at SF -7)

TREND: PHI underdog after home game

  • ATS: 1-6-0 (14.3%) since 2017 Week 17
 

This has to be the most injuries of any matchup all week. Philadelphia has backups all over, missing all sorts of linemen and wideouts. San Francisco suffers from more high-end injuries, losing superstar defensive end Nick Bosa and rising star Solomon Thomas on the defensive side and signal-caller Jimmy Garoppolo on Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Fortunately for San Fran, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are back, and Jerick McKinnon was taken completely off of the injury report. 

The 49ers have been smashing bad teams for the last two years, and with the way Carson Wentz has been playing, that’s exactly what the Eagles are. Losing to the Washington Football Team was one thing, but then tying Cincinnati really showed the NFL where this Philadelphia team is. Philly is desperate for a win here, but with their injuries on offense, it’s unlikely Wentz turns it around this week, and that’s a recipe for disaster going into Levi Stadium. 

Pick: SF -7

Game: SEA@MIA (currently at SEA -6.5)

TREND: SEA as under 7-point favorites after a win

  • ATS: 5-0-0 (100%) since 2019 Week 9
 

This Seattle Seahawks team refuses to let off the gas pedal, a trend that is expected to continue week after week. Already in playoff mode, Russell Wilson is unstoppable and has the keys to the sports car of his dream with that offense. The lethal WR duo of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf combined with SEA’s running attack of Chris Carson shows why they are at the top of the league (2nd in PPG). Miami has looked serviceable this year, combining for 56 points in the last two games. 

They kept up with a good Bills team in Week 2 and this matchup with Seattle will surely be a true test of where they stand. Some would look at this as a let down stinker game with the travel Seattle has to take and Miami not being the most motivating opponent. Pete Carroll knows what it takes to win a Super Bowl and won’t let that happen. Expect Seattle to use their momentum to make sure this game is out of reach and not come close to the -6.5 line that can only be seen as disrespect to this Super Bowl contending squad.

Play: SEA -6.5

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