PSO Scouting Report: QB Justin Herbert (Oregon)

PSO’s original Scouting Reports strive to be uniquely valuable in evaluating a player’s future outlook by focusing on the four main subjects that summarize a player’s likelihood of succeeding at the next level including: natural Physical Tools, College Game Film, proven Production, and overall Risk that each individual player presents to a team drafting him. For a full breakdown of PSO’s Scouting Reports, click here.

Bio

Pos: QB

Hometown: Eugene, OR

School: Oregon

Class: Senior

Age: 22

Height: 6’6″ | Weight: 236 lbs.

Hands: 10” | Arms: 32.88”

Bench: N/A | 40-YD: 4.68s

Facts to Know

2020 Senior Bowl & Rose Bowl MVP
Chose to return for Senior season despite likely 1st Rd selection in 2019 Draft
Starter since his true freshman season (43 total)
Excellent production on throws of 10+ air yards (21 TD/4 INT)

Physical Tools

Pros

Probably the most naturally-talented thrower in the class
Prototypical size (6’6″, 236 lbs)
Technically-sound, seemingly effortless motion
Upper and lower body are balanced and coordinated
Very underrated mobility (4.68s 40)
Adequate hand size (10″)
Powerful lower body (123″ broad jump – 94%)
121 SPARQ score (91st percentile)

Cons

Didn’t really utilize his athleticism to its full extent
Acceleration out of the pocket

Grade: A

Game Film

Pros

Terrific ball placement on downfield throws
Ideal velocity to zip through tight windows
Scheme did not assist his downfield strengths
Willing to hang in the pocket and take a hit
Legitimate scrambling threat, probably should do it more
Flashes the ability to extend plays, albeit inconsistently
Solid pocket footwork — good base, keeps feet active, doesn’t click heels

Cons

Most throws are lasers, needs to work on his touch
Occasionally struggled with shorter throws (too low and hard)
Inconsistent game-to-game, specifically on the move
Lackluster big-game performances (Arizona State, Auburn)

Grade: B+

Production

Pros

Terrific in 8 games as a sophomore (2017) — 91.1 PFF passing grade, 9.6 YPA, just 5 TO-worthy plays
75.3% adjusted completion percentage (T-17th)
21 TDs to just 4 INTs on throws of 10+ yards in 2019
11 TDs to 0 INTs against blitzes in 2019
Starter since his freshman season (43 total starts)
2020 Senior Bowl & Rose Bowl MVP
Meets Parcells’ requirements — 30+ starts, 23+ wins, > 2:1 TD:INT, and a 60+ completion rate

Cons

Didn’t significantly progress after sophomore season
69.6 PFF short passing grade (48th in FBS, 3 TDs : 2 INTs)
714 yards from screens (2nd-most in FBS)
26 fumbles in 43 career starts despite playing behind one of the country’s strongest OL units

Grade: B+

Risk

Pros

Prototypical 1st Round QB prospect
2019 William V. Campbell Trophy winner (academics, community service, and on-field performance)
Terrific natural arm talent, overall athleticism
Outstanding pre-draft process
Overcame scheme that did not fit his strengths
Lackluster skill position group at his disposal
Has shown development as a leader

Cons

Turnover issues despite being protected extremely well
Lack of progression is a cause for concern
Scheme will be vital, but he’s shown capable of adapting
Inconsistencies on film with inability to make simple short throws

Grade: B+

Overall

Heavily questioned for returning to school last season despite being considered an option for the #1 overall pick, Justin Herbert accomplished his most successful season since joining the Ducks by winning the Rose Bowl. The Eugene, OR native brought the “Granddaddy of Them All” to his hometown to cap off an illustrious 4-year career; not too bad of a decision with added context.

As a prospect, Herbert is extremely enticing. He possesses the prototypical size, athleticism, and natural cannon of an arm that will turn heads, just as he did at the combine. While he didn’t effectively utilize his athletic ability enough at Oregon, his growth in that area was evident down the stretch in 2019 (3 rush TDs in the Rose Bowl).

Though he was essentially a 4-year starter, the lack of progression after his injury-shortened sophomore season is concerning. The ill-fitted scheme and underwhelming skill group might have had a lot to do with that, but the situation in the NFL won’t always be ideal either. All-in-all, Herbert is big, athletic, has a live arm, and a lot of experience, which is why he will likely end up in the top-half of the 1st round.

Pro Comp: QB Carson Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles)

Projected Round: Top-15 pick

Prime Destinations: CIN, MIA, LAC, CAR, NE

OVERALL Grade: B+